PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, April 30, 2014

We should have another day of poor air quality on Wednesday; expect Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy AQI readings for the entire day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, May 1:  Thursday should start off with poor air quality like on Wednesday, but there is a decent chance of improved air quality in the afternoon.  We could see AQI readings as low as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in the afternoon if we are lucky, and clear air could start to move in as early as late Thursday evening.

FRIDAY, May 2:  Friday should be a great day, with Good/Moderate air quality for the entire day.

SATURDAY, May 3:  The PM2.5 levels could rise again on Saturday morning, but we should see clear skies again by the afternoon. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, April 29, 2014

We are in for another day with poor air quality on Tuesday, so look for Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions throughout the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, April 30:  Look for poor air quality again on Wednesday, but there is a decent chance that we could see somewhat lower AQI readings in the late afternoon and evening.

THURSDAY, May 1:  Thursday should start off with poor air quality like on Wednesday, but there is an even better chance of improved air quality in the afternoon.  We could see AQI readings as low as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or even Moderate in the afternoon if we are lucky, and Friday's clear skies could start as early as late on Thursday evening.

FRIDAY, May 2:  Friday should be a great day, with Good/Moderate air quality for the entire day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, April 28, 2014

After a better than average weekend, it looks like we will be starting off the week with poor air quality.  The general trend of the day should be one of increasing pollution, with AQI readings most likely at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy throughout the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, April 29:  The poor air quality should continue on Tuesday, so look for Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions during the entire day.

WEDNESDAY, April 30:  Look for poor air quality again on Wednesday, but there is a reasonable chance that we could see somewhat lower AQI readings in the late afternoon and evening.

THURSDAY, May 1:  Thursday should follow the same pattern as the previous days, but there is an even better chance of improved air quality in the afternoon.  We could see AQI readings as low as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or even Moderate if we are lucky. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, April 27, 2014

Saturday turned out pretty well, and Sunday's forecast is also looking good.  We can expect conditions at Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups for most of the day, but it's likely that the pollution will move back into Unhealthy before the day ends. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, April 28:  The accumulation of pollution should continue on Monday, and we are likely to see Unhealthy or higher AQI readings throughout the day.

TUESDAY, April 29:  The poor air quality should continue on Tuesday, so look for Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions during the entire day.

WEDNESDAY, April 30:  Look for poor air quality again on Wednesday, but there is a reasonable chance that we could see somewhat lower AQI readings in the late afternoon and evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, April 26, 2014

It took a bit longer than we expected, but it looks like the clear air should be arriving on early Saturday morning.  We can expect Good/Moderate air quality through the morning hours, but then we should expect increasing PM2.5 levels throughout the rest of the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, April 27:  Sunday's outlook is improving as it now looks like we could see Good/Moderate air quality late in the morning and in the afternoon.  We will probably see Unhealthy conditions early in the morning and late in the evening, but we should certainly have better than average air quality for Beijing.

MONDAY, April 28:  The pollution should accumulate for us again on Monday.  We are likely to see Unhealthy or higher AQI readings throughout the day. 

TUESDAY, April 29:  On Tuesday, the pollution should continue to accumulate, so look for Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions during the entire day.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, April 25, 2014

Thursday afternoon did not give us the improved air quality we were hoping for, but Friday's forecast is looking promising.  We should see Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions overnight and into Friday morning, but we should see the skies start to clear by late Friday afternoon or evening. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, April 26:  After the clearing on Friday evening, there is a good chance we will start off Saturday morning with Good/Moderate air quality, but we can expect increasing pollution levels throughout the day, probably leaving us at Unhealthy conditions before the day is over.

SUNDAY, April 27:  Sunday looks to be a mixed day.  On the whole, the AQI readings should be better than the average day in Beijing, and there is some chance of Good/Moderate air quality on Sunday morning.  But don't be surprised to see Unhealthy AQI readings at any point in the day.

MONDAY, April 28:  Monday is a bit hard to call at this point, but it does appear very unlikely that the AQI will climb any higher than Unhealthy at any time during the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, April 24, 2014

Thursday's air quality should be similar to Wednesday's, but we do have some chance at better conditions in the late afternoon and evening.  Look for Unhealthy conditions through the morning, then possibly Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Moderate conditions by the late afternoon.

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, April 25:  Friday should also follow the same pattern as Wednesday and Thursday, but now it looks as if there is a chance that we could see significant clearing on Friday evening.

SATURDAY, April 26:  After the clearing starts off on Friday, Saturday’s weather should bring us clear skies and Good/Moderate AQI readings for much of the day.

SUNDAY, April 27:  Sunday looks to be a mixed day.  On the whole, the AQI readings should be better than the average day in Beijing, but it is unlikely that Sunday will be as good as Saturday. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, April 23, 2014

We're looking for a fairly average day in Beijing tomorrow.  You can expect higher AQI readings in the morning, probably at Unhealthy, then somewhat better air quality in the afternoon, possibly down to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, April 24:  Thursday should be very similar to Wednesday, but probably just a bit better.

FRIDAY, April 25:  Friday should also follow the same pattern as Wednesday and Thursday, but for now it looks like the pollution levels will be higher on Friday.

SATURDAY, April 26:  There's a light at the end of this forecast:  Saturday's weather should bring us clearing skies and Good/Moderate AQI readings somewhere around noon.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, April 22, 2014

The air quality on Monday lived up to our expectations, but Tuesday will not be as good.  We should see AQI readings at Unhealthy for almost the entire day, with the highest pollution levels coming sometime in the morning. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, April 23:  Expect more of the same on Wednesday:  higher pollution levels in the morning, then reduced pollution in the afternoon and evening.  But there is a decent chance that we will drop down to the lower ranges of Unhealthy or even down to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups at some point in the afternoon.

THURSDAY, April 24:  Thursday should be another day to fit the standard pattern, with the AQI probably at Unhealthy for most of the day.

FRIDAY, April 25:  We're expecting poor air quality in the morning, then a good chance at clearing skies in the afternoon and evening.  Between the predicted rain and the general change in weather pattern, there is some chance that we could see Good or Moderate AQI readings in the evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, April 21, 2014

Sunday turned out basically in line with our best-case scenario, and it looks like we could repeat those conditions on Monday.  Look for the best air quality, as low as Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, between late morning and early evening. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, April 22:  We expect to be back to our normal spring/summer pattern on Tuesday:  high(er) AQI readings in the morning, then somewhat reduced AQI readings in the afternoon.  But for now, it looks like the AQI should stay at Unhealthy or lower for almost the entire day. 

WEDNESDAY, April 23:  Expect more of the same on Wednesday:  higher pollution levels in the morning, then reduced pollution in the afternoon and evening.  But we are likely to see higher AQI readings than on Monday or Tuesday.

THURSDAY, April 24:  Thursday should be another day to fit the standard pattern, with the AQI probably at Unhealthy for most of the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, April 20, 2014

Sunday's weather forecast presents a challenging scenario for prediction with conditions that could give us either good air quality or poor air quality.  We're feeling optimistic about our chances at improved air quality tomorrow, and you can see that in the graph.  We're expecting Unhealthy AQI readings overnight, but there is a decent chance that we could see those readings drop down as low as Moderate in the late morning and early afternoon.  Even if the weather doesn't cooperate, we should not see AQI readings any higher than Unhealthy tomorrow. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, April 21:  We could also have more moderate pollution on Monday.  There’s no clear trend at this point, but it looks like there is a decent chance that we could have Unhealthy or better conditions for most of the day.  If conditions are good on Sunday, that is a good sign of increased chances at better air on Monday.

TUESDAY, April 22:  We expect to be back to our normal spring/summer pattern on Tuesday:  high(er) AQI readings in the morning, then somewhat reduced AQI readings in the afternoon.  We should see the AQI at Unhealthy or worse for the entire day.

WEDNESDAY, April 23:  Expect more of the same on Wednesday:  higher pollution levels in the morning, then reduced pollution in the afternoon and evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, April 19, 2014

We're looking for more poor air quality on Saturday.  Look for increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, likely reaching up to Very Unhealthy at some point in the morning.  We could see those numbers dip a bit in the afternoon, but that looks unlikely with the current forecast. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, April 20:  Sunday should start off with poor air quality, but we should see a wind shift early in the morning.  There is some chance of clearing skies in the late morning and afternoon, but it looks like a small chance at this point.  It is more likely that we will see Unhealthy or worse conditions for the entire day. 

MONDAY, April 21:  We could have more moderate pollution on Monday.  There’s no clear trend at this point, but it looks like there is a decent chance that we could have Unhealthy or better conditions for most of the day.

TUESDAY, April 22:  We expect to be back to our normal spring/summer pattern on Tuesday:  high(er) AQI readings in the morning, then somewhat reduced AQI readings in the afternoon.  We should see the AQI at Unhealthy or worse for the entire day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, April 18, 2014

Friday should be yet another day with poor air quality - look for Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions for the entire day.

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, April 19: Saturday should bring us more poor air quality, probably worse than we have seen during the rest of the week.  We have a very good chance of seeing Very Unhealthy conditions, and the AQI should certainly go no lower than Unhealthy.

SUNDAY, April 20:  Sunday should start off with poor air quality, but there is some chance of clearing skies in the afternoon.  It looks like a small chance at this point, but we will see how the weather forecast develops.

MONDAY, April 21:  We could have more moderate pollution on Monday.  There's no clear trend at this point, but it looks like there is a good chance that we could have Unhealthy or better conditions for most of the day.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, April 17, 2014

Thursday should bring us more poor air quality in Beijing.  Look for increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, probably bringing us up to Very Unhealthy conditions during the morning.  From there we can expect decreasing pollution through the afternoon.  We will probably go lower than Unhealthy, but there is some chance that we could reach AQI readings as low as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups during the afternoon.

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, April 18:  We’re looking for more of the same conditions on Friday.  The AQI readings should be at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy throughout the day.

SATURDAY, April 19: Saturday should bring us more poor air quality, probably worse than we have seen during the rest of the week.  We have a very good chance of seeing Very Unhealthy conditions, but certainly no lower than Unhealthy.

SUNDAY, April 20:  Sunday should start off with poor air quality, but there is some chance of clearing skies in the afternoon.  It looks like a small chance at this point, but we will see how the weather forecast develops. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, April 16, 2014

 

Tuesday turned out pretty well, but Wednesday's air quality will probably not be as good.  We should see increasing PM2.5 levels overnight - we should start the day off at least at Unhealthy, but the AQI could go as high as Very Unhealthy.  After peaking in the morning, we should see the pollution drop off somewhat through the afternoon. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, April 17:  Thursday should start off at Unhealthy or higher AQI readings, but the chance of clearing skies from yesterday's forecast seems to have disappeared.  Instead, we're looking for Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions throughout the day.

FRIDAY, April 18:  We're looking for more of the same conditions on Friday.  The AQI readings should be at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy throughout the day. 

SATURDAY, April 19: Saturday should bring us more poor air quality, almost certainly at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Tuesday should be a big improvement compared to Monday's air quality.  We should see generally decreasing or stable AQI readings for most of the day, then we should see the pollution start to accumulate again in the late afternoon and evening. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, April 16: We will probably be back to conditions similar to this past weekend on Wednesday:  there is a good chance that we will see Very Unhealthy conditions in the morning, then some clearing that brings us down to Unhealthy in the afternoon.

THURSDAY, April 17:  Thursday should start off at Unhealthy or higher AQI readings, but there is now a chance that we could see clearing skies in the afternoon.  If the current forecast holds, we should see no worse than Unhealthy conditions in the afternoon and evening, and there is a decent chance that we could drop down to Good or Moderate levels during that time. 

FRIDAY, April 18:  We could see good conditions carry over into Friday morning, but the AQI should be on the rise by the afternoon.  We can expect to see Unhealthy conditions before the day is over. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, April 14, 2014

Monday looks like it should fit the pattern from the weekend with high AQI readings in the morning and improved conditions in the afternoon.  We could see numbers that are more extreme (on both the high and the low side) than we did over the weekend, so the air quality could start the day at Hazardous and end at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, April 15:  Tuesday also seems to fit the trend of the previous three days, but the overall range on the day should be lower than on Monday.  Expect conditions no worse than Very Unhealthy (possibly no worse than Unhealthy) and a good chance at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in the afternoon. 

WEDNESDAY, April 16: We will probably be back to conditions similar to this weekend on Wednesday:  there is a good chance that we will see Very Unhealthy conditions in the morning, then some clearing that brings us down to Unhealthy in the afternoon.

THURSDAY, April 17:  Look for Thursday's air quality conditions to mimic Wednesday's very closely. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, April 13, 2014

We're expecting basically a rerun of Saturday's air quality for Sunday in Beijing.  Look for higher AQI readings (Very Unhealthy) in the morning, then somewhat lower levels in the afternoon (possibly down to Unhealthy). 

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, April 14:  Monday seems to be following the general trend from the weekend, but the weather may be different enough that we could see somewhat lower pollution levels in the afternoon as compared to the weekend readings, possibly down to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.

TUESDAY, April 15:  Tuesday also seems to fit the trend of the previous three days, but there is an even better chance of improved air quality in the afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY, April 16: We will probably be back to conditions similar to this weekend on Wednesday:  there is a good chance that we will see Very Unhealthy conditions in the morning, then some clearing that brings us down to Unhealthy in the afternoon. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, April 12, 2014

Friday had unexpectedly decent air quality, but it looks like Saturday will probably be more mixed.  We're expecting AQI readings to move up to Very Unhealthy overnight, but the pollution should clear out somewhat around late morning and into the afternoon.  We could see the AQI improve all the way to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups during the late afternoon and early evening. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, April 13:  Sunday's weather forecast is almost identical to Saturday's, so look for similar air quality conditions:  higher AQI readings in the morning, then some clearing of the pollution in the afternoon.

MONDAY, April 14:  Monday seems to be following the general trend from the weekend, but the weather may be different enough that we could see somewhat lower pollution levels throughout the day as compared to the weekend readings. 

TUESDAY, April 15:  Tuesday also seems to fit the trend of the previous three days, but there is an even better chance of improved air quality in the afternoon and evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, April 11, 2014

Thursday was an odd day for air quality in Beijing.  Although the PM2.5 levels were not terrible (we saw the U.S. Embassy AQI readings at the lower end of the Unhealthy range), the PM10 levels reported by the Chinese government were much higher than normal.  Our forecast for Friday presumes that this aberration will not continue past Thursday night, but we can't guarantee that.  But for now, it looks like we can expect poor air quality again on Friday with AQI readings at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy throughout the day.  

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, April 12:  We’re looking for yet another day with poor air quality on Saturday.  It looks like we should see Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions throughout the day.

SUNDAY, April 13:  Same story, different day.  More poor air quality, at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy, looks to be the situation for Sunday.

MONDAY, April 14:  The streak should continue on Monday as we should see the AQI no lower than Unhealthy, and there is a good chance that we will see periods at Very Unhealthy.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, April 10, 2014

Thursday should be another day with poor air quality.  Look for Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions throughout the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, April 11:  We’re in for more poor air quality on Friday,possibly worse than on Thursday.  We should see the AQI no lower than Unhealthy, and there is a good chance that we will see periods at Very Unhealthy.

SATURDAY, April 12:  We’re looking for yet another day with poor air quality on Saturday.  It looks like we should see Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions throughout the day.

SUNDAY, April 13:  Same story, different day.  More poor air quality, at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy, looks to be the situation for Sunday. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, April 9, 2014

We have more poor air quality in store for us on Wednesday morning, but we may get some relief in the afternoon.  We should move back up into Very Unhealthy overnight and into the early morning, but we should see the PM2.5 levels start to drop off by about mid-morning.  There is a good chance that we could drop down all the way to Good or Moderate AQI levels by about noon, but there is also a chance that we will only make it down to Unhealthy at the lowest point of the day.  We’ll hope for the best!

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, April 10:  We should see a return to poor air quality on Thursday, with the AQI at Unhealthy or higher throughout the day.  As is usual for this time of year, we are likely to see somewhat better air quality in the afternoon than in the morning.

FRIDAY, April 11:  We’re in for more poor air quality on Friday, likely worse than on Thursday.  We should see the AQI no lower than Unhealthy, and there is a good chance that we will see periods at Very Unhealthy.

SATURDAY, April 12:  We’re looking for yet another day with poor air quality on Saturday.  It looks like we should see Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions throughout the day.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, April 8, 2014

On Tuesday, we're expecting to be back at poor air quality for the entire day.  We expect increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, and that should peak by about mid-morning.  We should see some reduction in the pollution in the afternoon, but we can't expect to see AQI levels lower than Unhealthy. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, April 9:  The poor air quality should continue in the morning, but we have a good chance at clearing skies in the late afternoon or early evening.

THURSDAY, April 10:  We should see a return to poor air quality on Thursday, with the AQI at Unhealthy or higher throughout the day.  As is usual for this time of year, we are likely to see somewhat better air quality in the afternoon than in the morning. 

FRIDAY, April 11:  We're in for more poor air quality on Friday - there's no sign of clearing skies at least this far in the forecast. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, April 7, 2014

All the variables came together for a better-than-expected Sunday, but Monday is unlikely to provide the same experience.  We're expecting increasing PM2.5 levels overnight that should leave us at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy in the morning.  From there we should see a reduction in the pollution into the afternoon, but it's unlikely that we will see better than Unhealthy readings in the afternoon and evening. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, April 8: Tuesday is likely to be very similar to Monday with poor air quality and AQI readings at Unhealthy or higher, but the afternoon clearing could be more significant than on Monday.

WEDNESDAY, April 9:  The poor air quality should continue in the morning, but we have a chance at clearing skies in the late afternoon.

THURSDAY, April 10:  Thursday's pollution forecast is inconclusive at the moment, but for right now, it looks like we should spend most of the day at Unhealthy. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, April 6, 2014

After a great day on Saturday, we should be back to average conditions for Beijing on Sunday.  We should see increasing PM2.5 levels overnight and into the morning, with the AQI probably peaking around mid-morning.  From there, we should see the pollution levels decrease somewhat through the afternoon - if we're lucky, we could drop back down to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, or we could remain at Unhealthy for the rest of the day.

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, April 7:  Monday is likely to be the worst day of the 3-day weekend.  We expect to see poor air quality again on Monday with the AQI at Unhealthy or higher, most likely at Very Unhealthy or higher.

TUESDAY, April 8: Tuesday is likely to be very similar to Monday with poor air quality and AQI readings at Unhealthy or higher.

WEDNESDAY, April 9:  The poor air quality should continue in the morning, but  we should see clearing skies in the afternoon.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings: