Tuesday, January 28, 2014

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, January 29, 2014

If you think that the graph for Wednesday's predicted air quality looks strange, you're correct.  This graph tells the story of two distinctly different outcomes for Wednesday (one on the high side and one on the low side), and there is a weather forecast that supports either extreme.  Under the first forecast, we should see improving air quality through the morning, then worsening conditions in the afternoon.  But under the second forecast, we would see increasing PM2.5 levels for basically the entire day, until after about 8PM.  We think there is about a 50/50 chance for each of these scenarios, so we will be hoping for the best for Wednesday's AQIs. 


THURSDAY, January 30:  Thursday should be a day with varied air quality.  There is a strong chance of good air quality in the early morning, but it looks like conditions should be deteriorating again by late afternoon.  This will likely be exacerbated late in the evening by smoke from the New Year fireworks.

FRIDAY, January 31:  Friday is now looking like another mixed day.  We could see improved air quality in the early morning, but after about 9AM things should deteriorate.  There is a chance that we will see AQI levels at Very Unhealthy or higher at some point, although we could see fairly mild increases, given the widespread shutdown of industry during the holiday.

SATURDAY, February 1: The first day of February is shaping up to be a disappointment when it comes to air quality.  Look for Very Unhealthy or higher pollution levels at points through the afternoon and evening.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:


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