Sunday, January 26, 2014

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, January 27, 2014

We were very fortunate to have the good air quality stay around for most of Sunday, but Sunday night and Monday are a different story.  We've already seen increasing PM2.5 levels, and that should continue through early Monday morning.  We should peak at Very Unhealthy or Hazardous sometime after sunrise before the pollution starts to drop off again between late morning and afternoon.  The weather forecasts for the afternoon diverge significantly, and they predict two different outcomes.  The first forecast would have us drop down to Good or Moderate levels as early as mid-afternoon and continuing at that level for the rest of the day.  But the second forecast would give us a much slower reduction that would likely leave us no better than Unhealthy at the lowest point of the day.  So for Monday afternoon, it's a good idea to keep an eye on the hourly AQI reports to see where things are headed. 


TUESDAY, January 28:  Tuesday is looking like another day with mixed air quality.  We could see fairly low AQIs in the early morning and in the afternoon, and although the pollution should accumulate some, it looks like the AQI is likely to stay at Unhealthy or lower for the entire day.

WEDNESDAY, January 29: We’re expecting poor air quality on Wednesday, almost certainly at Unhealthy or higher levels all day.

THURSDAY, January 30:  Thursday should be another day with varied air quality.  There is a decent chance of good air quality in the early morning, but it looks like conditions should be deteriorating again by the afternoon and through the evening.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:


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