PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Monday was a roller coaster ride for air quality in Beijing, and Tuesday may be very similar.  We're expecting increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, likely peaking around mid-morning.  We could make it up into Hazardous at the peak, and almost certainly up into Very Unhealthy.  From there we should see the air quality improve through the afternoon, but likely no lower than Unhealthy.  Finally, we are likely to see increasing pollution again in the evening.

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, April 2: We should see poor air quality overnight and early on Wednesday, but we have a good chance at seeing clearing skies between late morning and early afternoon on Wednesday.  The forecast is not entirely clear at this  point, but we could see the AQI drop down to Good or Moderate during the afternoon.

THURSDAY, April 3:  After the AQI jumps back up overnight, we should see clearing skies again on Thursday, with the good air arriving between about 9AM and 2PM.

FRIDAY, April 4:  The good air quality should continue on Friday.  Although we might see elevated PM2.5 levels in the morning, we should see Good or Moderate air quality for the rest of the day.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, March 31, 2014

Sunday was another great day for air quality, again exceeding our expectations.  Monday does not look so promising, although we don't expect a return to the terrible air quality of last week.  Instead, look for AQI levels at Unhealthy or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups throughout the day with peaks in the pollution around the morning commute and late in the evening.  Our lowest pollution levels of the day will likely come around late afternoon. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, April 1:  The poor air quality is likely to be back again on Tuesday – the AQI is likely to be at least Very Unhealthy in the morning, before possibly dropping back down into Unhealthy in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY, April 2: Wednesday’s forecast is almost identical to Tuesday’s, so we should expect similar air quality as well.  The afternoon drop in pollution will probably be more significant on Wednesday, so the AQI will likely be no worse than Unhealthy by late afternoon. 

THURSDAY, April 3:  We should see clearing skies again on Thursday, with the good air arriving between about 8AM and noon. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, March 30, 2014

Saturday's air quality was a pleasant surprise as the weather pattern we saw was much better for air quality than the one predicted.  As an added bonus, that leaves us starting off Sunday much better than we expected a day ago.  We have a good chance at dropping back down to Moderate AQI levels overnight and in the morning, then we should see the pollution start to accumulate again in the afternoon, taking us back up to at least Unhealthy before the day is over. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, March 31:  We are expecting poor air quality again on Monday.  Look for Unhealthy or higher AQI levels throughout the day, although we may see slightly improved conditions in the afternoon.

TUESDAY, April 1:  We're in for poor air quality again on Tuesday – look for the AQI to be at least Very Unhealthy in the morning, then possibly down into Unhealthy in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY, April 2: Wednesday's forecast is almost identical to Tuesday's, so we should expect similar air quality as well. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, March 29, 2014

Friday's good air quality never quite arrived, although we were headed in the right direction until late afternoon.  With the higher PM2.5 levels on Friday evening, that significantly shifts the forecast for Saturday.  We're expecting decreasing pollution overnight, but now it looks like we have little chance of making it down to Good or Moderate in the morning.  Instead, look for us to reach the day's low point at Unhealthy or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups around 7AM or 8AM.  From then on, we're looking for increasing PM2.5 levels for the remainder of the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, March 30:  The poor air quality should continue on Sunday, most likely giving us Very Unhealthy or worse air quality throughout the day. 

MONDAY, March 31:  We are expecting poor air quality again on Monday.  Look for Very Unhealthy or higher AQI levels in the morning, then we may see slightly improved conditions in the afternoon.

TUESDAY, April 1:  There's no end in sight for this run of poor air quality - look for the AQI to be at least Very Unhealthy in the morning, then possibly down into Unhealthy in the afternoon. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, March 28, 2014

It took longer than we expected, but we finally saw the skies clear a bit on Thursday afternoon.  After we see the pollution move back up overnight, you can expect the PM2.5 levels to drop off again on Friday.  It will likely be between noon and about 6PM when we finally drop down into Good/Moderate AQI readings. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, March 29:  Friday’s good air quality should carry over into Saturday morning, but look for the PM2.5 levels to start moving up again after noon.  We will certainly reach Unhealthy and possibly Very Unhealthy before the day is over. 

SUNDAY, March 30:  Sunday’s forecast is fairly uncertain at this point.  There is no indication of clearing skies, so we can expect Unhealthy or worse air quality throughout the day.

MONDAY, March 31:  We are expecting poor air quality again on Monday.  Look for Unhealthy or higher AQI levels throughout the day, although we may see slightly improved conditions in the afternoon. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, March 27, 2014

After several days with very poor air quality, we're expecting just a little bit of relief on Thursday.  We should see the PM2.5 levels start to drop off overnight, then settle in between about 125 and 225 on the AQI index after noon.  We don't expect to see Good air quality on Thursday, but it will definitely be better than we have experienced over the last few days. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, March 28:  The pollution levels will likely bounce back up overnight, but we have a very good chance of seeing Good/Moderate air quality arrive between late morning and early afternoon.  Once the pollution clears out, we should have clear skies for the rest of the day. 

SATURDAY, March 29:  Friday's good air quality should carry over into Saturday morning, but look for the PM2.5 levels to start moving up again after noon. 

SUNDAY, March 30:  Sunday's forecast is fairly uncertain at this point.  There is no indication of clearing skies, so we can expect Unhealthy or worse air quality throughout the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Our run of bad air continues on Wednesday.  Look for Very Unhealthy or Hazardous conditions throughout the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, March 27:  There is more poor air quality in store for us on Thursday.  We should be at Very Unhealthy or worse in the morning, then the PM2.5 levels should drop off somewhat in the late morning and the afternoon.  Despite the decreasing pollution, it is unlikely that we will see the AQI drop below Unhealthy.

FRIDAY, March 28:  As of now, Friday's forecast calls for conditions that are likely to give us big reductions in the PM2.5 levels.  It's hard to say for certain that we will make it all the down to Good/Moderate on Friday, but it seems very likely that we will at least dip below Unhealthy for some time around noon. 

SATURDAY, March 29:  Saturday looks to be a day of mixed air quality right now.  Expect average (Unhealthy) or somewhat better than average conditions for Beijing on Saturday. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Our optimism for Tuesday morning's air has faded - now it looks like we will see poor air quality throughout the day.  You can expect Very Unhealthy or Hazardous conditions throughout the day on Tuesday. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, March 26:  We’re looking for more poor air quality on Wednesday, with a good chance at Very Unhealthy or worse air quality for much of the day.

THURSDAY, March 27:  There is more poor air quality in store for us on Thursday.  We should be at Very Unhealthy or worse in the morning, then the PM2.5 levels should drop off somewhat in the afternoon (although it is unlikely to go below Unhealthy).

FRIDAY, March 28:  The poor air quality will continue on Friday as we see Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions throughout the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, March 24, 2014

We're in for another rough day on Monday as it looks like we should spend most of the day at Very Unhealthy or Hazardous.  Look for the pollution to peak fairly early in the morning and then drop off into the afternoon. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, March 25:  Although Tuesday is likely to be another poor air quality day, the chance of some clearing in the morning is still there.  If the air does clear early on Tuesday morning, we should see Unhealthy AQIs for much of the day, but otherwise we will be expecting Very Unhealthy or higher AQIs. 

WEDNESDAY, March 26:  We’re looking for more poor air quality on Wednesday, with a good chance at Very Unhealthy air quality for much of the day.

THURSDAY, March 27:  There is more poor air quality in store for us on Thursday.  We should be at Very Unhealthy or worse in the morning, then the PM2.5 level should drop off somewhat in the afternoon (although it almost certainly will not go below Unhealthy). 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, March 23, 2014

After another great day on Saturday, we're expecting a return to poor air quality on Sunday.  Look for increasing pollution levels overnight and into the morning, then we should see those levels stabilize in the afternoon.  We can expect no better than Unhealthy air quality through the day, and there is a good chance that we will make it up to Very Unhealthy for significant chunks of the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, March 24:  Monday should be another day with poor air quality.  There is a good chance that we will see Very Unhealthy AQI levels in the morning, and we expect no better than Unhealthy AQI levels throughout the day.

TUESDAY, March 25:  Tuesday is likely to be another poor air quality day.  But there is a small chance that we could see reduced pollution, especially in the morning, so we will see how the weather forecast develops as we get closer.

WEDNESDAY, March 26:  We're looking for more poor air quality on Wednesday, with a good chance at Very Unhealthy air quality at points during the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, March 22, 2014

The weather forecasts are finally in agreement for Saturday, and it looks like it is going to be a good day.  Look for decreasing pollution levels any time after midnight, and we should make it to Good/Moderate air quality by shortly after sunrise.  We should have good air quality through almost the entire day, but we will likely see increasing pollution in the late evening hours.  

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, March 23:  It looks like we will be back to poor air quality on Sunday.  We are expecting Unhealthy or higher AQI levels throughout the day, although there is no indication right now that we should go much higher than Unhealthy at any point.

MONDAY, March 24:  Monday should be another day with poor air quality.  There is a good chance that we will see Very Unhealthy AQI levels in the morning, and we expect no better than Unhealthy AQI levels throughout the day.

TUESDAY, March 25:  Tuesday is likely to be another poor air quality day.  There is a small chance that we could see reduced pollution, especially in the morning, so we will see how the weather forecast develops as we get closer. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, March 21, 2014

After a great day on Thursday, we're looking for the pollution to accumulate again on Friday.  The good air quality may hang around for a few hours in the morning, but we can expect to be back into Unhealthy air quality as early as mid-morning, and almost certainly before the day is over. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, March 22:  Saturday's forecast is uncertain at this point.  Under one weather forecast, we could see Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or better air quality throughout the day.  But under the other scenario, we should spend most of Saturday at Unhealthy AQI levels.  We'll hope for more clarity in the forecast tomorrow. 

SUNDAY, March 23:  Sunday’s air quality is likely to be worse than Saturday’s.  We are expecting Unhealthy or higher AQI levels throughout the day.

MONDAY, March 24:  Monday should be another day with poor air quality.  There is a good chance that we will see Very Unhealthy AQI levels in the morning, and we expect no better than Unhealthy AQI levels throughout the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, March 20, 2014

We should have Good or Moderate air quality all day on Thursday - get outside and enjoy!

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, March 21:  It looks like the clear air will likely stay around for some part of the morning, but look for increasing pollution levels in the afternoon.  We should make it back up to Unhealthy before the day is over.

SATURDAY, March 22:  We should spend most of Saturday at Unhealthy AQI levels, but there is a small chance that the morning hours will be lower than that.  Look for better air quality in the morning and around noon, then deteriorating conditions in the evening.

SUNDAY, March 23:  Sunday's air quality should be worse than Saturday's.  We are expecting Unhealthy or higher AQI levels throughout the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, March 19, 2014

We're back to poor air quality on Wednesday - look for increasing pollution in the early morning hours and possibly through the early afternoon.  The weather forecasts are a bit scattered on the conditions between 6AM and 6PM, so the range of possibilities in that time frame is significant.  But in any case, we expect the pollution to start to clear out again in the evening, moving us toward some great air quality for Thursday. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, March 20:  We’re expecting clear air all day on Thursday, so be sure to plan some time to get outside!

FRIDAY, March 21:  Once again, the clear air will likely stay around for some part of the morning, but look for increasing pollution levels in the afternoon.  We should make it back up to Unhealthy before the day is over.

SATURDAY, March 22:  Saturday's weather forecast is a bit unusual, but it looks likely that we will see the air clear again, if only for a couple of hours.  Look for better air quality in the morning and around noon, then deteriorating conditions in the evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, March 18, 2014

On Tuesday, we should have a few more hours of good air quality, but we could see the PM2.5 levels start to increase as early as sunrise.  We will almost certainly move up into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and likely into Unhealthy before the day is over. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, March 19:  We should start off the day on Wednesday with poor air quality, likely at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy AQI levels, but clear air is heading our way again in the afternoon, likely between about 5PM and 10PM.

THURSDAY, March 20:  We're expecting clear air all day on Thursday, so be sure to plan some time to get outside!

FRIDAY, March 21:  Once again, the clear air will likely stay around for some part of the morning, but look for increasing pollution levels in the afternoon. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, March 17, 2014

Good air quality is coming back on Monday after a weekend with poor air quality.  We should see Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions overnight, but we should see the air start to clear between about 6AM and 10AM.  Once we drop down to a Good/Moderate AQI, the clear air should stay around for the rest of the day.

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, March 18:  The clear air could stay with us through early Tuesday morning, but the pollution should begin to accumulate again by about mid-morning.  We should spend most of the day at Unhealthy AQI levels.

WEDNESDAY, March 19:  We should start off the day on Wednesday with poor air quality, likely at Unhealthy AQI levels, but clear air is heading our way again in the afternoon, likely between about 3PM and 7PM.

THURSDAY, March 20:  You can expect clear air all day on Thursday!

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, March 16, 2014

We're expecting another day of poor air quality on Sunday.  The weather forecasts for Sunday diverge on the morning's forecast, so there is a small chance of lower pollution levels around mid-morning.  We think that possibility is worth mentioning, but only just.  The most likely outcome for Sunday is AQI levels that hover mostly around Very Unhealthy. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, March 17:  Good air should be back on Monday – look for the air to clear between about 6AM and 10AM, then we should remain at Good or Moderate for the rest of the day.

TUESDAY, March 18:  The clear air could stay with us through early Tuesday morning, but the pollution should begin to accumulate again by about mid-morning.  We should spend most of the day at Unhealthy or higher AQI levels.

WEDNESDAY, March 19:  Clear air is heading our way again on Wednesday, likely around late morning. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, March 15, 2014

After another day of great air quality on Friday, we're headed back to Unhealthy conditions on Saturday.  The general trend of the day should be one of increasing pollution; we will likely move through Unhealthy and up into Very Unhealthy before the day is over. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, March 16:  We’re expecting the poor air quality to continue on Sunday, most likely giving us Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions throughout the day.

MONDAY, March 17:  Good air should be back on Monday – look for the air to clear between about 6AM and 10AM, then we should remain at Good or Moderate throughout the day.

TUESDAY, March 18:  The clear air could stay with us through Tuesday morning, but it is likely that the pollution will begin to accumulate again in the afternoon.  There is a good chance that we will spend most of the day at Unhealthy or higher AQI levels. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, March 14, 2014

Thursday was a wonderful surprise with its good air quality, and Friday is also looking promising.  We expect Good or Moderate air quality in the morning, but it's unclear how long the good air will stay here.  The pollution should start to increase at some point in the afternoon, but if we're lucky the clear air will be with us for most of the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, March 15:  There is some chance of decent air in the morning, but that looks like a very small chance.  Even if it does occur, we should move back up into Unhealthy and probably higher in the afternoon and evening.

SUNDAY, March 16:  We’re expecting poor air quality on Sunday, most likely at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy throughout the day.

MONDAY, March 17:  The clear air should be back on Monday - look for the air to clear between about 6AM and 10AM.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, March 13, 2014

It looks like we will be back to poor air quality on Thursday.  Although we expect increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, there is a small chance that the pollution will drop back down a bit in the early morning hours.  In any case, we should see the worst air quality of the day between about noon and 6PM.  Later in the evening, we could see the trend reverse and the pollution levels start to drop. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, March 14:  We should see the pollution clear out early on Friday morning, then it is likely that we will have Good/Moderate air quality by sunrise.  But all indications are that the good air will not last, so we should be moving back toward Unhealthy by late morning or early afternoon.  Then we should finish off the day at Unhealthy. 

SATURDAY, March 15:  There is some chance of clearing air in the morning, but that is beginning to look like a very small chance.  Even if it does occur, we should move back up into Unhealthy and probably higher in the afternoon and evening.

SUNDAY, March 16:  We're expecting poor air quality on Sunday, most likely at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy throughout the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, March 12, 2014

We should have Good or Moderate air quality all day on Wednesday, so be sure to get outside and enjoy!

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, March 13:  Thursday’s air quality should be mixed, with some potential opportunities for Good/Moderate air quality - the best chance for that will be in the morning. At this point it looks like the AQI should go no higher than Unhealthy at any point in the day.

FRIDAY, March 14:  Friday will likely be another day with mixed air quality.  We have a good chance at Good/Moderate air quality in the morning, then we will probably see the AQI move up to Unhealthy in the afternoon and evening.

SATURDAY, March 15:  Saturday should be yet another day with mixed air quality.  There is some chance that we will see Good/Moderate air quality in the morning before we move back up into Unhealthy in the afternoon. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, March 11, 2014

We're in for another day with mostly poor air quality on Tuesday, but clear air is on the way.  Shortly after noon, we should see the pollution levels start to drop, and we expect to see Good/Moderate air no later than about 9PM. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, March 12:  We should have clear skies for almost the entire day on Wednesday, so plan for Good or Moderate AQI levels. 

THURSDAY, March 13:  Thursday’s air quality should be mixed, with some potential opportunities for Good/Moderate air quality. At this point it looks like the AQI should go no higher than Unhealthy at any point in the day. 

FRIDAY, March 14:  Friday will likely be another day with mixed air quality.  We have some chance at Good/Moderate air quality in the morning, then we will probably see the AQI move up to Unhealthy in the afternoon and evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, March 10, 2014

Although Sunday's air quality was not good, it was better than we had anticipated.  This should carry over into Monday, when we should spend most of the day at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy.  Our best air of the day should come in the late afternoon when we could drop as low as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups if the conditions are just right. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, March 11:  The poor air quality should continue through Tuesday morning and early afternoon, probably raising the AQI up to Very Unhealthy, but our next round of clean air should be moving in between late afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY, March 12:  We should have clear skies for the almost the entire day on Wednesday, so plan for Good or Moderate AQI levels.  We could see rising PM2.5 levels in the evening. 

THURSDAY, March 13:  Thursday's air quality should be mixed, though probably no higher than Unhealthy, with higher pollution levels in the morning and a chance at clear skies in the evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, March 9, 2014

Poor air quality is back in full force on Sunday.  We are expecting the entire day to be at Very Unhealthy or Hazardous, so try to avoid those outdoor activities if you can. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, March 10:  Look for more of the same poor air quality on Monday, with the majority of the day being spent at Very Unhealthy or Hazardous AQI levels.

TUESDAY, March 11:  Our streak of very poor air quality should continue through Tuesday morning and afternoon, but our next round of clean air should be moving in between late afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY, March 12:  We should have clear skies for the entire day on Wednesday, so plan for Good or Moderate AQI levels.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, March 8, 2014

We're back to poor air quality on Saturday.  We should see increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, and there is a good chance we will make it into Very Unhealthy before noon.  After noon, we should see the pollution drop off some, but the weather forecasts do not agree on the conditions.  Because of that, it's unclear whether we will remain at Very Unhealthy in the evening or drop back down toward Good/Moderate air quality. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, March 9:  The poor air quality should be back on Sunday with increasing pollution levels throughout the day. We could stay as low as Unhealthy during the day or we could move up into Very Unhealthy at some point.

MONDAY, March 10:  Look for more of the same poor air quality on Monday, although it looks like Monday could have higher pollution levels than we will see over the weekend.

TUESDAY, March 11:  The poor air quality should continue through the morning, but our next round of clean air should be moving in between late afternoon and evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings: