Friday, February 28, 2014

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, March 1, 2014

Our forecast for Saturday is a bit uncertain as we have mixed weather forecasts for the day.  If the first of the forecasts is correct, we will almost certainly see the pollution mostly clear out in the morning, leaving us with AQIs at Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.  But if the other forecast is correct, we would see only a modest amount of clearing, with the air quality never improving beyond Unhealthy.  We're a bit skeptical about the first scenario; with the mixed forecasts, we think it is more likely that any clearing on Saturday will be fairly modest.  We will certainly hope for the best, but don't be too surprised if we don't see any clear air on Saturday. 


SUNDAY, March 2:  Pollution levels should tick back up again on Sunday morning, leaving us with Unhealthy or worse AQIs for most of the day.  There is a good chance that we will see clearing skies on Sunday afternoon, possibly between about 2PM and 5PM.

MONDAY, March 3:  Conditions will be deteriorating again on Monday.  We should be back up to Unhealthy by sunrise, and then we should be at Unhealthy or worse for the entire day.

TUESDAY, March 4:  It looks like we will see clearing skies again on Tuesday, with the clean air likely arriving between about 8AM and 11AM. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

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