PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, March 1, 2014

Our forecast for Saturday is a bit uncertain as we have mixed weather forecasts for the day.  If the first of the forecasts is correct, we will almost certainly see the pollution mostly clear out in the morning, leaving us with AQIs at Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.  But if the other forecast is correct, we would see only a modest amount of clearing, with the air quality never improving beyond Unhealthy.  We're a bit skeptical about the first scenario; with the mixed forecasts, we think it is more likely that any clearing on Saturday will be fairly modest.  We will certainly hope for the best, but don't be too surprised if we don't see any clear air on Saturday. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, March 2:  Pollution levels should tick back up again on Sunday morning, leaving us with Unhealthy or worse AQIs for most of the day.  There is a good chance that we will see clearing skies on Sunday afternoon, possibly between about 2PM and 5PM.

MONDAY, March 3:  Conditions will be deteriorating again on Monday.  We should be back up to Unhealthy by sunrise, and then we should be at Unhealthy or worse for the entire day.

TUESDAY, March 4:  It looks like we will see clearing skies again on Tuesday, with the clean air likely arriving between about 8AM and 11AM. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, February 28, 2014

We're back to poor air quality on Friday, although it looks as if it will not be as bad as we have experienced recently.  We should see increasing pollution overnight, then stabilizing or slightly decreasing pollution in the morning hours.  We could drop back down into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, but that is probably a long shot.  Then in the late afternoon and evening, we should see the pollution levels increase again, possibly bringing us up into Very Unhealthy before midnight. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, March 1:  The weather forecasts we use are not in agreement about Saturday's weather conditions.  It's safe to say that we will not see Good/Moderate air on Saturday, but there is some chance that the AQI will stay down at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or the lower part of the Unhealthy range in the morning.  It is probably more likely that we will stay at Unhealthy for the morning, with a chance at moving up into Very Unhealthy in the evening.

SUNDAY, March 2:  Pollution levels should tick back up again on Sunday morning, leaving us with Unhealthy or worse AQIs throughout the day.  There could be a slight clearing on Sunday afternoon, but there is not evidence to support a strong call on that at this point. 

MONDAY, March 3:  More poor air quality is coming on Monday.  We should certainly be no better than Unhealthy, and there is a good chance that we will be at Very Unhealthy or worse for the entire day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, February 27, 2014

Our clear air arrived a bit early on Wednesday evening, so we're set for Good or Moderate air quality overnight and into Thursday morning.  The clear skies can't last forever though, so look for the PM2.5 to start accumulating again by mid- to late-afternoon. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, February 28:  The pollution should accumulate again on Friday, and we can expect no better than Unhealthy air quality. There is some chance we will see Very Unhealthy levels at some point in the day, but we expect the AQI to go no higher than that.  

SATURDAY, March 1:  The pollution should remain elevated on Saturday morning, but it should level out in the afternoon and possibly clear somewhat in the evening.

SUNDAY, March 2:  Pollution levels should tick back up again on Sunday, leaving us with Unhealthy or worse AQIs throughout the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Our streak of very poor air quality should extend for just one more day in Beijing.  We should see Hazardous or Beyond Index AQI levels throughout the day, but we should see some decrease in the pollution in the evening.  If we're lucky, the pollution will blow out before midnight, but it should be gone by sunrise on Thursday at the latest. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, February 27:  We're looking for Good or Moderate AQI readings on Thursday morning and afternoon, but we could see the pollution start to build up again in the evening.

FRIDAY, February 28:  The pollution should accumulate again on Friday.  We can expect no better than Unhealthy air quality, and there is a good chance we will see Very Unhealthy levels at some point in the day.  So far there is no sign that we will see the Hazardous air quality from recent days.

SATURDAY, March 1:  We could see the pollution continue to accumulate on Saturday morning, but the pollution should level out in the afternoon and possibly clear in the evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, February 25, 2014

There's no sign of the pollution letting up on Tuesday - look for Hazardous or worse conditions throughout the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, February 26:  We’re expecting some improvement in air quality on Wednesday afternoon or evening, but it is unlikely that we will see significant changes until late in the evening.  Until then, we should continue to see Hazardous or worse air quality.

THURSDAY, February 27:  Thursday should be the day we break our streak of terrible air quality.  We should see clearing skies shortly after midnight, then Good or Moderate AQI readings for the rest of day.

FRIDAY, February 28:  The pollution should accumulate again on Friday.  We can expect no better than Unhealthy air quality, and there is a good chance we will see Very Unhealthy levels at some point in the day.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, February 24, 2014

The poor air continues on Monday - look for Hazardous air quality or worse for the entire day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, February 25:  There is no sign yet of the pollution letting up yet – we’re expecting Very Unhealthy or worse conditions for Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY, February 26:  We’re expecting some improvement in air quality on Wednesday, although this may be slight.  We could see decreasing pollution in the afternoon or evening as Thursday's expected clearing begins.

THURSDAY, February 27:  Thursday should be the day we break our streak of terrible air quality.  Look for Good or Moderate AQI readings for the entire day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, February 23, 2014

The poor air quality will continue in Beijing on Sunday.  We're expecting mostly Hazardous AQI readings, but we could move Beyond Index or down to Very Unhealthy at points in the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, February 24:  Right now it looks as if Monday’s air quality will be worse than Sunday’s.  If this proves true,  we will see at least Hazardous AQIs and likely some time Beyond Index on Monday.

TUESDAY, February 25:  There is no sign yet of the pollution letting up yet – we’re expecting Very Unhealthy or worse conditions for Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY, February 26:  We're expecting some improvement in air quality on Wednesday, although this may be slight.  We could see decreasing pollution in the afternoon or evening as we are expecting clearing skies on Thursday morning. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, February 22, 2014

We have more poor air quality on the way for Saturday.  Yesterday we were optimistic about reduced pollution on Saturday, but it looks like it will only be slightly better than on Friday.  Look for Very Unhealthy or Hazardous AQIs throughout the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, February 23:  The trend of poor air quality continues on Sunday, when we can expect at least Unhealthy air quality, although there is a good chance it will be at Very Unhealthy or worse. 

MONDAY, February 24:  Right now it looks as if Monday’s air quality will be worse than Sunday’s, so look for Very Unhealthy or Hazardous AQIs on Monday.

TUESDAY, February 25:  There is no sign of the pollution letting up yet - we're expecting Very Unhealthy or worse conditions for Tuesday.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, February 21, 2014

We're in for a rough day on Friday as it looks very likely that we will see the AQI stay in the Hazardous range for the entire day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, February 22:  It looks as if the pollution should subside somewhat on Saturday.  Although the pollution level may be lower than it was on Friday, we are expecting it to be no better than Unhealthy.

SUNDAY, February 23:  The trend of poor air quality continues on Sunday, when we can expect Unhealthy or higher AQIs.  It is likely that Sunday's air quality will be worse than Saturday's. 

MONDAY, February 24:  Right now it looks as if Monday's air quality will be worse than Sunday's, so there is a good chance that we will see the AQI at Very Unhealthy or higher on Monday.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, February 20, 2014

Wednesday was a pleasant surprise with the Moderate AQI in the afternoon, but Thursday should be very different.  We should see increasing PM2.5 levels overnight that take us up to Very Unhealthy AQIs.  There should be some reduction in pollution in the afternoon, but we expect that will take us no lower than Unhealthy.  Overall, it's reasonable to expect that we will spend more than half of Thursday at Very Unhealthy. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, February 21:  More poor air quality is coming on Friday, again likely bringing us to Very Unhealthy conditions at points throughout the day.

SATURDAY, February 22:  Right now, it looks as if the pollution should subside somewhat on Saturday.  Although the pollution level may be lower than it was on Friday, we are expecting it to be no better than Unhealthy. 

SUNDAY, February 23:  The trend of poor air quality continues on Sunday, when we can expect Unhealthy or higher AQIs. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, February 19, 2014

We're expecting Wednesday to have somewhat poorer air quality than Tuesday on average, possibly with much higher readings in the early morning and late evening.  Our best air quality of the day should come around late morning when there is a distinct chance of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or better air quality.  Then after 2PM, we should see the pollution accumulating again, likely taking us into Very Unhealthy conditions before midnight. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, February 20:  Look for another day of poor air quality on Thursday, with a good chance that we will see Very Unhealthy conditions at various points throughout the day.

FRIDAY, February 21:  More poor air quality is coming on Friday, again likely bringing us to Very Unhealthy conditions at points throughout the day.

SATURDAY, February 22:  The streak of poor air quality should continue on Saturday as the warmer air presents no opportunity for the pollution to clear out.  Very Unhealthy or higher AQIs should be the order of the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Monday gave us unexpectedly low PM2.5 levels, although we still had Unhealthy conditions for nearly the entire day.  Tuesday looks to be very similar, so look for average or slightly better than average conditions for Beijing this time of year. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, February 19:  The better-than-average conditions should continue through Wednesday morning, but it's likely that we will see the pollution accumulate again in the afternoon and evening. 

THURSDAY, February 20:  Look for another day of poor air quality on Thursday, with a good chance that we will see Very Unhealthy conditions at points throughout the day.

FRIDAY, February 21:  More poor air quality is coming on Friday, again likely bringing us to Very Unhealthy conditions at points throughout the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, February 17, 2014

Sunday was certainly a disappointment as our good air quality never arrived.  We did see some reduction in the pollution levels, and that leaves us starting off Monday a little better than we started Sunday.  Look for decreasing PM2.5 levels overnight, then increasing pollution in the late morning and through the afternoon.  The air quality should be poor throughout the day, likely at Very Unhealthy for the most part. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, February 18:  Tuesday should also have poor air quality, but there's a good chance that we will have a large part of the day at Unhealthy AQI levels. 

WEDNESDAY, February 19:  The poor air quality will continue through Wednesday.  If we're lucky, we'll spend most of the day at Unhealthy rather than at higher levels. 

THURSDAY, February 20:  Look for another day of poor air quality on Thursday, with a good chance that we will spend most of the day at Very Unhealthy. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, February 16, 2014

After a rough Saturday, Sunday is looking promising.  There is a very good chance of seeing Good/Moderate air quality on Sunday morning.  At a minimum, we should drop out of the Hazardous and Very Unhealthy conditions that have plagued us the past few days in Beijing.  Unfortunately, that Good/Moderate air quality will not last long as we should see increasing PM2.5 levels in the afternoon and evening.

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, February 17:  Monday could be similar to Sunday as it looks like the weather conditions could improve air quality in the morning.  The air will likely not be as clear as on Sunday, and again conditions should be conducive to increasing pollution in the afternoon and evening.

TUESDAY, February 18:  The extended forecast for Tuesday calls for poor air quality, with Unhealthy or higher AQI levels throughout the day.

WEDNESDAY, February 19:  Look for the poor air quality to continue into Wednesday. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, February 15, 2014

Friday's air was worse than we expected, and the poor air quality should continue on Saturday.  There is a chance that the pollution will clear somewhat in the morning, but that appears to be a remote possibility at this point.  Instead look for the AQI to be at Very Unhealthy or Hazardous throughout the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, February 16:  The forecast for Sunday shows a strong chance of good air quality arriving in the morning, possibly by sunrise.  But it looks unlikely that the good air will last long, leaving us back at Unhealthy or higher AQI levels in the evening.

MONDAY, February 17:  Monday could be a repeat of Sunday as there as some indications that the weather conditions could significantly improve air quality in the morning.  And again, conditions should be conducive to increasing pollution in the afternoon and evening. 

TUESDAY, February 18:  The extended forecast for Tuesday calls for poor air quality, with Unhealthy or higher AQI levels throughout the day.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, February 14, 2014

We're expecting poor air quality all day on Friday, with the AQI at Very Unhealthy or worse.  We could see some changes in the amount of pollution, but we do not expect it to go lower than Very Unhealthy. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, February 15:  Look for the poor air quality to continue on Saturday, likely in the Very Unhealthy range or worse.

SUNDAY, February 16:  The forecast for Sunday shows a decent chance of good air quality arriving in the morning, but the good air will likely not last all day. 

MONDAY, February 17:  We should be back to poor air quality on Monday, although the extended forecasts do not make it clear whether that will be Unhealthy or higher PM2.5 levels. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, February 13, 2014

We have more poor air to look forward to on Thursday.  We're expecting slower changes in the pollution levels, spending most of the day at Unhealthy.  We could see movement into Very Unhealthy or into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups for brief periods, but look for mostly Unhealthy pollution levels.

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, February 14:  The weather forecasts are mixed for Friday.  We can expect Unhealthy or worse air quality throughout the day, but one forecast predicts conditions that would give us significantly increased pollution in the early morning and evening, likely at Very Unhealthy or higher.

SATURDAY, February 15:  Look for the very poor air quality to continue on Saturday, likely in the Very Unhealthy range or worse.

SUNDAY, February 16:  We might see somewhat improved air quality on Sunday, but there are currently no signs of good air quality.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, February 12, 2014

We're expecting a lot of fast changes in air quality on Wednesday.  Look for high PM2.5 levels after midnight, possibly dropping as low as Good./Moderate by the morning hours.  Then in the afternoon, look for the pollution to accumulate again very quickly. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, February 13:  We’re expecting poor air quality again on Thursday, although the current weather forecasts suggest the pollution will be about average for Beijing, somewhere in the Unhealthy range.

FRIDAY, February 14:  The pollution on Friday should be higher than the day before, so we should expect average or somewhat worse than average air quality, between Unhealthy and Very Unhealthy.

SATURDAY, February 15:  Look for the poor air quality to continue on Saturday, likely in the Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy range again. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, February 11, 2014

We're back to poor air quality in Beijing on Tuesday.  We should see increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, but the weather forecasts we use for our predictions differ in the late morning and early afternoon.  With the weather conditions of one forecast, we will see decreasing pollution through about 2PM, but with the conditions from the other forecast, we will see the pollution continue to increase during that time period.  Then for the evening, we can expect gradual increases in the PM2.5 levels under either scenario. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, February 12:  There is now a very good chance of decreased PM2.5 levels on Wednesday morning.  It is possible that the AQI will drop to Good/Moderate, but that is not a given.  In any event, we should see lower than average pollution through noon on Wednesday.  Then in the afternoon and evening, we should see increasing pollution again.

THURSDAY, February 13:  We're expecting poor air quality again on Thursday, although the current weather forecasts suggest the pollution will be about average for Beijing, somewhere in the Unhealthy range.

FRIDAY, February 14:  The pollution on Friday should be higher than the day before, so we should expect average or somewhat worse than average air quality, between Unhealthy and Very Unhealthy.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, February 10, 2014

Monday's story will be about increasing PM2.5 levels.  We could see the Good/Moderate air hang around for a few hours, but the gradual pollution accumulation should start by the morning hours.  We can expect to see Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy AQI levels before midnight. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, February 11:  Look for poor air quality on Tuesday, with a good chance at Very Unhealthy AQI levels, particularly in the morning hours.

WEDNESDAY, February 12:  There is some chance of decreased PM2.5 levels on Wednesday morning.  It is unlikely that the AQI will drop to Good/Moderate, but it could be lower than on Tuesday.  In any case, we should see increasing pollution again in the evening. 

THURSDAY, February 13:  You can expect another day with poor air quality on Thursday. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, February 9, 2014

It's another day with good air quality on Sunday in Beijing.  We could see increased PM2.5 levels in the afternoon and evening, possibly taking us up into the lower range of Unhealthy.

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, February 10:  The story for Monday will be increasing pollution levels throughout the day.  There is a small chance we could see Good/Moderate levels in the early morning, but we should make it to Unhealthy and Very Unhealthy in the afternoon and evening.

TUESDAY, February 11:  Look for poor air quality on Tuesday, with a strong chance for Very Unhealthy or worse AQI levels, particularly in the morning hours.

WEDNESDAY, February 12:  The extended forecast for Wednesday calls for poor air quality.  Right now, it looks most likely that we will see the normal Unhealthy/Very Unhealthy winter day rather than extremely high pollution.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, February 8, 2014

Saturday should bring us clear skies to go with the freshly fallen snow in Beijing.  We're expecting PM2.5 levels at Unhealthy or the low range of Very Unhealthy overnight, then we should see the pollution starting to clear between about 6AM and noon.  We could see Good/Moderate air quality as early as 10AM, but certainly no later than 4 or 5PM. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, February 9:  The air should remain clear during the day on Sunday, then we could see the pollution start to accumulate again in the evening.

MONDAY, February 10:  The weather forecasts for Monday make it hard to predict from this far out.  Right now, it looks like we should have lower pollution levels than average with the best air quality in the morning.

TUESDAY, February 11:  Look for poor air quality on Tuesday, with a decent chance for Very Unhealthy or worse AQI levels, particularly in the morning hours.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, February 7, 2014

We're expecting Friday to be very similar to Thursday, with poor air quality throughout the day.  We could see slightly lower pollution levels in the late morning and early afternoon, but don't expect the air to clear too much. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, February 8:  We’re expecting clearing skies on Saturday, likely around noon or shortly thereafter.

SUNDAY, February 9:  The air should remain clear during the day on Sunday, then we could see the pollution start to accumulate again in the evening.

MONDAY, February 10:  The weather forecasts for Monday make it hard to predict from this far out.  Right now, it looks like we should have lower pollution levels than average with the best air quality in the morning. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, February 6, 2014

Wednesday was a bit better than we expected, and it looks like Thursday may be better than our long-range predictions had us thinking.  We should see Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy air quality overnight, but we should see a notable reduction in the pollution between about 6AM and noon.  We could drop down into Unhealthy or even Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups if the conditions are just right.  But after lunch, we should see the PM2.5 accumulating again, taking us back up to Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy during the evening. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, February 7:  Friday presents interesting weather conditions as we have a good chance for some snow fall.  We expect the air quality to generally be poor, but it looks most likely at this point that the AQI will stay at Unhealthy or the lower ranges of Very Unhealthy throughout the day.

SATURDAY, February 8:  We're still looking for clearing skies on Saturday, likely after noon.

SUNDAY, February 9:  The air should remain clear during the day on Sunday, then we could see the pollution start to accumulate again in the evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, February 5, 2014

We're back to poor air quality on Wednesday as we look for PM2.5 levels at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy.  The general trend for the day should be increasing pollution, and the entire day should give us poor conditions. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, February 6:  Thursday also should bring us poor air quality.  We could see a dip in PM2.5 levels during the morning hours, but we still expect to see the AQI at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy throughout the day. 

FRIDAY, February 7:  The streak of poor air quality should continue on Friday.  We might see pollution levels a bit lower than on Thursday, but likely not by much.

SATURDAY, February 8:  It looks like there is a good chance for us to see clearing skies on Saturday, likely after noon.  

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings: