PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, November 30, 2013

Saturday is likely another day with varied air quality.  We're looking for improving air quality after midnight but it's unclear whether we'll make it down to Good, Moderate, or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups by the morning.  By about noon, we should see PM2.5 levels start to rise.  If we're lucky, we'll manage to stay in the Moderate range for the rest of the day, but we could also climb up into the upper part of the Unhealthy range before midnight. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, November 29, 2013

Friday's air quality is proving difficult to predict, so we have a wide range of possibilities for tomorrow.  After midnight, we could see some decent clearing, or we could see levels stay in the Unhealthy range.  Around sunrise, we should see PM2.5 levels drop, then after noon we should see stable or increasing pollution.  Finally, in the evening we should see PM2.5 levels falling again.  As the day progresses, keep an eye on the current AQI, then you can keep the general trends shown here to know where things are headed. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, November 28, 2013

Once again, we're looking at great air quality for Thursday in Beijing.  We may see some slight increases in PM2.5 levels after sunset, but overall we should have a great day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Wednesday promises to be a beautiful, albeit windy, day in Beijing.  We’re expecting to see stable air quality in the Good or Moderate range for the entire day.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Tuesday's air quality forecast is looking good.  PM2.5 levels should drop a bit overnight, then we should see Good or Moderate air quality for the rest of the day.  Enjoy!

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, November 25, 2013

Sunday proved to be a big disappointment as our good air quality took all day to actually show up.  But now that it has arrived, we're expecting it to stay around for most of Monday.  PM2.5 levels should increase somewhat in the late afternoon and evening, but we should be able to enjoy most of the day before that happens. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, November 24, 2013

On Sunday, we're looking for clearing skies in Beijing.  We could see the PM2.5 levels begin to drop as early as midnight or as late as about 6AM, but in either case we're expecting to see Good or Moderate air quality no later than noon.  Early forecasts for Monday are looking very good as well. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, November 23, 2013

Saturday's air quality is, unfortunately, very difficult to predict.  The weather predictions we have to review indicate that we could see air quality tomorrow anywhere between an AQI of 50 and an AQI of 500.  What appears somewhat certain is that, at some point after midnight, we will see PM2.5 levels decrease and that the decreasing will stop by shortly after noon.  From there, whether we're in the Moderate or Very Unhealthy range, we expect the PM2.5 levels to either remain stable or to increase slightly. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, November 22, 2013

We're in for pretty rough air quality on Friday.  We've seen abruptly increasing PM2.5 levels on Thursday evening, and we expect those levels to remain high on Friday.  We could see some variability throughout the day, including some decrease in the pollution around noon, but overall the general trend should be slightly increasing with levels at Unhealthy or worse. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, November 21, 2013

Wednesday was a pleasant surprise as we saw PM2.5 levels drop down into the moderate range.  Thursday has a chance at doing a similar thing, but we think it's not as likely.  Overnight, look for increasing PM2.5 levels, quite possibly moving us into Very Unhealthy conditions by sunrise.  Then during the morning hours, we should get a pretty good idea of what will happen for the rest of the day.  If we see pollution levels drop significantly, you can expect most of the rest of the day to remain on the lower end of our predicted range.  But if the PM2.5 levels have not dropped by noon, it's unlikely that we will see any further improvements through the rest of the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, November 20, 2013

On Wednesday, we're back to about average air quality conditions for Beijing.  We're expecting increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, then decreasing levels through the morning.  If we're lucky, we'll make it back down to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups before the pollution begins accumulating again over the afternoon and evening, bringing us back up to Unhealthy and possibly to Very Unhealthy. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, November 19, 2013

After being spoiled by three days of great air quality, we're going to be coming back to reality a bit on Tuesday.  The weather forecasts we review are giving us a small range of possible outcomes, so our prediction range for tomorrow is larger than we normally like.  In the morning, the air quality could remain Good/Moderate, or we could see PM2.5 levels start to move up shortly after midnight.  By afternoon and evening, all the forecasts point toward increasing PM2.5 levels, and that could put us anywhere between Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and the high end of the Unhealthy range. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, November 18, 2013

On Monday, we're in for another great day of air quality in Beijing.  Look for Good or Moderate air quality all day!

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, November 17, 2013

Sunday promises to be another great day for air quality in Beijing.  We may see slightly elevated PM2.5 levels overnight, but by morning, we should be back down to Good or Moderate air quality.  And for the rest of the day, you can expect pollution levels to remain low.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, November 16, 2013

After an incredibly wild roller coaster of air quality on Friday, we're expecting things to be more stable over the weekend.  At or shortly after midnight, we expect PM2.5 levels to start dropping, and we should be looking at Good or Moderate air quality at or shortly after sunrise.  Then for the rest of the afternoon (and probably for Sunday as well), we're looking for good air quality. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, November 15, 2013

We have a chance at good air again on Friday, but that is certainly not a sure thing.  We're expecting mostly stable air quality overnight, mostly at Unhealthy but possibly at the high end of the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range.  We should see some clearing in the morning, but that might only drop us lower in the Unhealthy range or it could drop us into Good/Moderate.  For the late afternoon and evening, look for increasing PM2.5 levels again relative to where we were in the afternoon.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, November 14, 2013

Thursday brings another clearing of Beijing's pollution, with PM2.5 levels dropping in the early morning hours.  We could be at Good or Moderate air quality before sunrise, or it could take until nearly noon to clear.  Once the air clears, we should have a few hours of good air, but around late afternoon or early evening, we may see the PM2.5 levels start to creep back up again. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, November 13, 2013

The good air quality of the past few days will be gone on Wednesday as we're back to Unhealthy and Very Unhealthy Conditions in Beijing.  Look for increasing PM2.5 levels overnight that, depending on which weather forecast proves correct, could bring us up to Very Unhealthy conditions before sunrise.  In the worst-case scenario, we'll spend almost the entire day at Very Unhealthy conditions, but our best-case scenario would leave us entirely in the Unhealthy range.  Regardless how poor our air quality is tomorrow, we're looking for another clearing to come through on Thursday, so this round of misery should be short. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Monday proved to be a pretty good day for air quality, but Tuesday looks like it will fall short of that by a bit.  We've seen elevated PM2.5 levels on Monday evening, but we're looking for those to decrease overnight and into Tuesday morning.  It's up in the air exactly how much of a decrease we'll see, so by noon our air quality could be down to Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.  But after noon, we expect the pollution to begin to accumulate again, almost certainly moving us back up into the Unhealthy range before midnight. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, November 11, 2013

Monday's air quality will again be better than the average for Beijing.  We are expecting Good or Moderate air quality at least for the morning hours on Monday, but we will likely see increasing PM2.5 levels in the afternoon.  The weather forecasts we have present a wide range of possibilities for the afternoon, including air quality at the upper end of the Unhealthy range.  We think it is most likely that we will see increased pollution in the afternoon and evening, almost certainly moving us into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and likely moving us into Unhealthy for at least a short period of time.  Extended forecasts have the air clearing somewhat on Monday night and into Tuesday morning, but we'll wait and see if those forecasts hold. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, November 10, 2013

Saturday disappointed as the clean air took a bit longer to arrive than we expected, but Sunday promises to be better.  We're expecting Good or Moderate air quality for the entire day, so be sure to get outside and enjoy!

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, November 9, 2013

Saturday brings us another round of clear air, one that looks as if it might stay around for a couple of days.  PM2.5 levels should begin to drop early in the morning, but this clearing may be more gradual than others we've seen recently.  We could be in the Good/Moderate range as early as 6AM or as late as 2PM, but we think it's most likely to arrive closer to 10AM.  Once the air clears, it looks like we'll have a beautiful day.  And SPOILER ALERT - Sunday is looking nice as well. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, November 8, 2013

We're back to solidly poor air quality for Friday in Beijing.  PM2.5 levels have been rising since late afternoon on Thursday, and that trend should continue overnight, possibly bringing us up to Hazardous conditions.  Around sunrise, the weather forecasts we have diverge, so our prediction range is quite wide for most of the day.  Friday's "high" scenario has levels increasing until about noon, leveling off for a bit, then picking back up as it moves over 400 AQI.  But Friday's more positive "low" scenario has levels peaking at the high end of Unhealthy around sunrise, dropping slightly through the late morning/early afternoon, then slowly rising again.  We'll hope for the best. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, November 7, 2013

The story for Thursday will be increasing PM2.5 levels, but there is a chance that we can hold on to Wednesday's good air quality for part of the day.  Pollution levels should remain low overnight, but we could see the air quality begin to deteriorate as early as sunrise.  We expect it will take a bit longer than that, but by noon we should be on our way back up.  We should see Unhealthy air quality by sometime in the evening, and we could even make it up to Very Unhealthy before midnight. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Wednesday brings us a few more hours of poor air quality, but then we should see clearing skies.  PM2.5 levels could start dropping as early as about 3AM, but it's likely to be closer to about 7AM and could be as late as about 9AM.  In any case, we should have clear skies by noon (assuming the incoming system doesn't create a sandstorm) and for the rest of the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings: