PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, August 31, 2013

Saturday looks like another great day for air quality in Beijing.  PM2.5 levels may be a little elevated in the morning, but things should clear fairly quickly.  We are likely to see a similar situation in the afternoon as we saw on Friday, with slightly increasing PM2.5 in the afternoon and evening hours. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, August 30, 2013

Friday's air quality will continue Thursday's excellent air quality, at least for the first part of the day.  We should stay at Good or Moderate levels throughout the morning, but we could see some increasing after noon.  The best case scenario will see us remain at Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups for the afternoon and evening, but our worst case scenario has the PM2.5 level moving up into Unhealthy before midnight. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, August 29, 2013

Thursday should be a great day for air quality - the predicted weather conditions should clear out the current PM2.5 accumulation within just a few hours.  We should see Moderate or Good air quality beginning anywhere between 5AM and about 9AM, and our air quality should remain stable at those levels for the rest of the day. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, August 28, 2013

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Tuesday should give us a chance at some fairly good air quality.  We have seen levels mostly at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups since midnight, and we should remain here or slightly increase into the lower range of Unhealthy in the next few hours.  But between about 7AM and 11AM, we should see PM2.5 levels start to decrease, and we could see that drop all the way into Moderate for the afternoon. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, August 25, 2013

Sunday looks like it could go either way on air quality; our weather forecasts are not in agreement for a good part of the day.  Since midnight we've seen some clearing, and under one weather forecast that should continue.  But the other forecast predicts conditions that would allow the pollution to build up a bit more, so we could see movement in either direction before noon (although if we had to pick one, it's probably more likely to see the downward trend continue).  Either way, the early afternoon hours should give us some clearing before levels trend back up in the evening. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, August 24, 2013

After some poorer air quality overnight, Saturday gives us a good chance at some decent air quality.  After midnight, we saw a quick increase then decrease in PM2.5 levels, and we should see the decrease continue for a few more hours, possibly through the early afternoon.  Then for the remainder of the day, we should see a general upward trend for PM2.5, although the increase could be slow enough to keep us out of the Unhealthy range for a good part of the day. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, August 23, 2013

Thursday evening's clearing that we predicted seems to have been late - it never seemed to materialize on Thursday.  But that clearing effect appears to be happening now as we have seen decreasing PM2.5 levels since midnight.  That clearing should continue through the morning as we move toward Good or Moderate air.  But the weather conditions for the late afternoon and evening are typical of those that lead to increasing pollution, so we should see our clear air start to deteriorate between about 3PM and 7 PM.  It's likely to be a short spell of good air, but we will enjoy it while it lasts. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, August 22, 2013

Thursday presents us with a chance for some clearing skies, but only after the poor air continues for a bit longer.  We should see rising PM2.5 levels through the early morning and possibly through noon, and we could reach back up into Very Unhealthy during this time.  The pollution levels should start to come down around mid-morning or just after noon, but the weather forecasts are not in agreement on the weather conditions for the afternoon.  One scenario would see the levels slowly dropping throughout the afternoon, while the other scenario has the air clearing much faster.  We're feeling optimistic about these conditions, so we think that there's a good chance that we'll see significantly better air quality by late afternoon. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Look for a near repeat of Tuesday's air quality on Wednesday.  We've been hovering in the upper range of Unhealthy since midnight - we could see some increasing over the next few hours, but it is more likely that we will stay at the same general level.  We should see some clearing start around late morning or noon, and that could take us as low as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups by late afternoon.  Then look for increasing PM2.5 levels in the evening again. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Tuesday presents us with another example of the typical air quality for a summer day in Beijing.  We've seen increasing PM2.5 levels since midnight, and those increases should continue for a few more hours, possibly until about noon.  That should give us a peak at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy.  From the peak, we should see the pollution clearing somewhat, and if the most ideal weather forecasts are true, we could drop down as low as Moderate by late afternoon.  It's much more likely that we will see a drop into the lower portion of the Unhealthy range or upper portion of the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range, but we will hope for the best. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, August 19, 2013

After a couple of very nice days for air quality, Monday may prove a bit disappointing.  Since midnight, we've seen the skies clear a bit, down into Moderate, but we should see increasing pollution levels by mid-morning.  We have differing weather forecasts for the day, so it's difficult to predict how quickly the pollution levels will increase.  Under the best scenario, we'll drift gradually up and stay at Moderate for most of the day; under the worst-case scenario, levels will increase more quickly and move up into the high range of Unhealthy. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, August 17, 2013

After several days with very poor air quality, Saturday promises to bring us clear skies.  We should start seeing PM2.5 levels drop shortly after midnight, and we should be out of the Unhealthy range no later than about 10AM.  After that, pollution levels should remain low for the rest of the day, so be sure to get outside and enjoy while the air is good. 

The good air looks like it will stay around for a bit as the extended forecast for Sunday has us keeping our clear air at least for most of the day (although we could see some increases in pollution later in the afternoon or evening).  There will be no separate forecast for Sunday, but we'll be back for Monday's forecast. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, August 16, 2013

Beijing has seen two days of nearly steadily increasing PM2.5, and the weather forecasts for Friday are not showing anything to break that trend.  Our most likely scenario is the familiar summer pattern of increasing pollution overnight and in the morning and decreasing pollution in the afternoon, but Friday's levels are likely to be consistently higher than we've seen in the past few days.  Expect to see Unhealthy and Very Unhealthy air quality for the greatest part of the day. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, August 15, 2013

Compared to Wednesday, Thursday has a stronger chance of good air quality.  Again we should see increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, but those levels should peak by about mid-morning.  From there, we should see some clearing through the afternoon that could drop us as low as Moderate throughout the late afternoon and evening. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Wednesday's air quality was shaping up to be worse than Tuesday's, but a late clearing on Tuesday sets the stage for better air.  Nevertheless, once again we should see increasing pollution overnight and through the morning, and we could peak on the high end of the Unhealthy range.  The weather forecasts do not all agree though, so there is the possibility for the AQI to hover in the low Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or upper Moderate range instead.  In the afternoon, we could see some clearing in either scenario, possibly dropping 50 points or more from the readings around noon.  And yet again, we should see increasing PM2.5 levels in the evening hours. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Tuesday's air quality looks to be fairly typical for this time of year in Beijing.  Look for increasing PM2.5 levels throughout the morning that will likely have us in the Unhealthy range.  By noon, we should begin to see decreasing pollution that could drop us as low as the upper range of Moderate or could stall out in the low- to mid-range of Unhealthy.  Then, look for increasing pollution levels again after sunset. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, August 12, 2013

Monday's air quality should be an improvement over Sunday's, but we still have a chance to make it back up to Very Unhealthy.  For the morning hours, the weather forecasts are fairly inconsistent, so the best forecast we can give is that we should see air quality somewhere at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Unhealthy through about noon.  From there, the weather forecasts are more consistent, but they are not in agreement.  Under one scenario, we'll see a bit more clearing, and we could drop down into Moderate in the late afternoon or early evening.  In the other scenario, we will see steadily increasing pollution levels from noon through the rest of the day, moving us back up into Very Unhealthy. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, August 10, 2013

Sunday is looking like a normal summer day for Beijing.  We should see gradually increasing PM2.5 in the morning, almost certainly at Unhealthy, before we begin to see levels drop off around mid-morning.  From there, we could see anything between a slight decrease and a significant decrease in pollution through the afternoon, moving us into the lower range of Unhealthy or as low as Moderate. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, August 10, 2013

Once again, two weather forecasts promise two very different air quality scenarios for Saturday.  The first scenario would have us in the low range of Unhealthy or the upper range of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups through the early and mid-morning hours.  The second scenario would see PM2.5 levels rising quickly, likely into Very Unhealthy before the morning is over.  But the weather forecasts converge for the afternoon hours, so in either case we should see some clearing in the skies in the late morning or early afternoon.  Then for the remainder of the day, we should see air quality that is improved compared to the morning. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, August 9, 2013

Friday's air quality is very difficult to predict:  we have two contradicting weather forecasts, and the air quality that will result from the two forecasts are not at all similar.  Under the first scenario, we should see slightly decreasing PM2.5 levels, then generally stable pollution levels for the remainder of the day.  If this weather forecast plays out, we should have air quality at Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups for the entire day.  But in the second scenario, the weather conditions are prime for significantly increasing PM2.5 levels, and we could peak as high as Very Unhealthy around noon before seeing just a bit of clearing.  So, you can expect either good air quality or bad air quality tomorrow - the best indicator of which extreme we'll see is the pollution levels at 6 or 7AM.  Look for the rest of the day to be in line with what we see first thing in the morning. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, August 8, 2013

After unexpectedly good air on Wednesday, it looks as if Thursday will continue the trend.  We should see air quality at Good, Moderate, or the low range of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups through the early morning hours before we see some increasing PM2.5 levels.  There should be a general trend upward, so by late afternoon and evening we should be no lower than Moderate, and we could begin to see some measurements in the Unhealthy range.

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, August 7, 2013

After an unexpectedly bad Tuesday evening, Wednesday has a good chance of continuing that trend.  Rising PM2.5 levels should keep us at Very Unhealthy at least through sunrise, but the weather forecasts diverge around 6AM.  One model shows the pollution increasing through late afternoon while the other shows some clearing beginning shortly after sunrise.  By early evening, the models converge again, so we should definitely see clearing skies through the evening.  So, look for pollution levels to trend toward one of the extremes from the graph; in either case, we should see Unhealthy or higher pollution levels through mid-afternoon at least.

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, August 6, 2013

We're back to our normal roller coaster of air quality for Tuesday.  Look for PM2.5 levels to increase into the morning, peaking at Unhealthy.  Then by late morning we should see levels start to drop, probably moving us back into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and possibly into Moderate.  And once again, look for those PM2.5 levels to start rising again around sunset. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, August 5, 2013

Monday's air quality looks to be better than average.  We should see increasing PM2.5 levels in the morning and decreasing levels in the afternoon, and we should fall between Moderate and Unhealthy for the entire day.

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, August 4, 2013

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, August 3, 2013

Saturday should start off with increasing pollution levels, moving us up into Unhealthy and possibly into Very Unhealthy before noon.  But we should peak somewhere between 10A and 2P, and from there the PM2.5 should drop for a few hours.  If we're lucky, we'll see Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Moderate conditions for the late afternoon and evening, or we could see air quality in the Unhealthy range for the entire afternoon. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, August 2, 2013

After better than average air quality on Thursday, Friday's forecast does not look quite as good.  We should start the morning off with increasing PM2.5 levels, and it is possible that we could climb as high as Very Unhealthy.  But we should see some decreasing beginning between 6 and 10AM, and that decreasing should continue through the afternoon.  Depending on the exact weather conditions (and on how poor the morning air quality was), we could see anything from the upper range of Moderate to the lower range of Unhealthy in the afternoon. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, August 1, 2013

After Wednesday's evening clearing, it looks like Thursday's air quality will be fairly good.  The early morning air quality should be mostly stable, but the weather forecasts diverge from about sunrise through noon.  Depending on which forecast you use to predict the air quality, PM2.5 levels may go up or down, and the graph above reflects this possibility.  But by noon the weather forecasts begin to agree again, and it looks as if there should be some additional clearing for the afternoon.  This should drop us into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, Moderate, or even Good for the afternoon hours.  Finally, in the evening, we can expect some increases in PM2.5 levels, but they should not be too dramatic.