PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, January 4, 2014

Saturday looks like it will be a day with serious volatility in air quality.  We should spend the day almost entirely at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy AQI levels, but we could dip down into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups around late morning or early afternoon if we're lucky.

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, January 5:  Look for improved air quality in the morning as compared to Saturday, then deteriorating conditions in the afternoon and evening.  We should see AQI levels at Good/Moderate in the morning, then things should deteriorate to Unhealthy or worse from mid-afternoon through evening.

MONDAY, January 6:  The air quality should continue to deteriorate through Monday, leaving us with Unhealthy or worse conditions for the entire day.

TUESDAY, January 7:  We should see poor air quality carry over through the morning, then it's likely that we will see clearing skies in the afternoon or evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, January 3, 2014

Friday's air quality will be a significant improvement over Thursday's.  Although we've seen high AQI levels on Thursday evening, the skies should clear overnight in time for us to have Good/Moderate air quality by about 8 or 9AM.  Pollution levels should remain low through early afternoon, then the pollution should accumulate again over the afternoon and evening. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, January 4:  Saturday may prove to be a volatile day for air quality, but for now, it looks most likely that we will see air quality at Unhealthy or worse for the entire day.

SUNDAY, January 5:  Look for somewhat improved air quality in the morning as compared to Saturday, then deteriorating conditions in the afternoon and evening.  We could see AQI levels below Unhealthy in the morning, then Unhealthy or worse from mid-afternoon through evening. 

MONDAY, January 6:  The poor air quality should continue through Monday with the air quality following a generally deteriorating trend throughout the day.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, January 2, 2014

Thursday's air quality will almost certainly be a disappointment compared to Wednesday's.  We are expecting increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, bringing us to Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy conditions.  We will likely see a reduction in the pollution between about sunrise and noon, and we could see our lowest pollution levels of the day at that point.  Then we should see increasing pollution for the remainder of the day, likely moving us up to Very Unhealthy conditions. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, January 3:  There is a good chance of clearing skies in the morning leaving us with Good/Moderate air quality before lunch, then likely deteriorating air quality in the evening.  

SATURDAY, January 4:  From this far out, Saturday’s air quality is difficult to predict.  But from here, it looks most likely that we will see air quality at Unhealthy or worse, possibly with significant increases in pollution in the evening.

SUNDAY, January 5:  Look for somewhat improved air quality in the morning as compared to Saturday, then deteriorating conditions in the afternoon and evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, January 1, 2014

2014 promises to come in on a pleasant note as we should see Good/Moderate air for the early part of the day.  But we can't expect it to last as we should see PM2.5 levels accumulate in the late afternoon and evening.

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, January 2:  The prevailing conditions of the past few weeks that have given us clear air will likely not be in effect today.  Look for air quality that is no better than Moderate in the morning, then gradually becoming worse throughout the day with higher pollution levels in the late afternoon and evening.

FRIDAY, January 3:  There is a good chance of clearing skies in the morning, then deteriorating air quality again in the evening.  This might be a day with some big changes in pollution levels throughout the day.

SATURDAY, January 4:  From this far out, Saturday's air quality is difficult to predict.  But from here, it looks most likely that we will see air quality at Unhealthy or worse, although it does not appear very likely that we will see extremely high AQI levels. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings: