PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, November 1, 2013

We were spared the worst of our predicted outcomes on Halloween, but we have another chance at the same very poor air quality tomorrow.  Our predicted weather conditions are right on the line between what gives us increasing PM2.5 levels and what gives us decreasing PM2.5, so Friday could go either way, particularly in the early morning hours.  But once we make it to about 6 or 7AM, we're expecting levels to be fairly stable for most of the day.  We could see some bigger swings in the evening hours, but overall you can expect poor air quality for the entire day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, October 31, 2013

Appropriately enough for Halloween, our forecast for Thursday is grisly.  We're starting the day off with Very Unhealthy air quality, and we're expecting only deteriorating conditions for the rest of the day.  We're expecting Hazardous PM2.5 levels by the afternoon and evening, not the conditions we wanted for trick-or-treating.  But we hope you still have enough time to change your costumes to somehow include the fog/smog in your theme . . .

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings: 
 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Wednesday looks as if it will be a transition day for us in Beijing, following Tuesday's good air and leading into what is looking like pretty poor air quality for Thursday.  Overnight we may see some slight increases in PM2.5 or clearing skies, depending on which of the weather forecasts is correct.  But from about 7 or 8AM on, we should be looking at increasing PM2.5 levels, so be sure to check the actual readings around that time and plan for the rest of the day accordingly. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings: 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Monday proved to be a disappointment for air quality, but Tuesday promises to be better.  All of the weather forecasts agree that we should be seeing some clear air on Tuesday, if only for a short time.  We could see PM2.5 levels start to decrease at or just before midnight, and we could be at Good or Moderate as early as 5 or 6AM.  In any case, we should be at Good or Moderate no later than noon, but the clear air will not last long.  We're expecting PM2.5 levels to start increasing again around 2 or 3PM, and we could make it back up to Unhealthy or even Very Unhealthy before the day is over. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, October 28, 2013

If you just looked at the graph for today's forecast, you could assume that we have no idea what is going to happen with Monday's air quality.  But the story behind the graph is that the weather forecasts for Monday do not agree.  So we are looking at two possible scenarios.  In Scenario #1, we will see PM2.5 levels stable or slightly dropping in the early morning, then dropping more quickly between sunrise and noon.  From there we would see mostly stable air quality through the afternoon at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or the low end of the Unhealthy range.  But in Scenario #2, we would see PM2.5 levels stay at or near the Hazardous range all day with a slight decrease around noon and another increase in the afternoon/evening.  The weather forecast for Scenario #1 has a better track record for being correct over the last few weeks, so if we have to pick, we think Scenario #1 is the more likely of the two. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:
 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, October 27, 2013

Sunday's air quality forecast is not looking promising.  We've seen quickly increasing PM2.5 levels on Saturday evening, and Sunday's weather conditions are perfect for this accumulation to continue.  With those conditions, we should move into Very Unhealthy conditions in the morning and possibly into Hazardous conditions by late morning or early afternoon. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings: 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, October 26, 2013

Saturday's air quality will be worse than we've seen for a few days.  After Friday evening's PM2.5 accumulation, we should see the pollution levels decrease a bit overnight.  But by mid-morning, PM2.5 levels should be on the rise and continue increasing throughout the day.  We should certainly make it to Unhealthy and possibly to Very Unhealthy by the end of the day. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, October 25, 2013

Friday should be yet another day with good air quality in Beijing.  There is a chance that we will see higher PM2.5 levels in the late afternoon and early evening if one of the weather forecasts plays out as predicted, but an opposing forecast would have us remaining at Good or Moderate levels for the entire day.  Our money is on slightly increased pollution levels in the early evening, but we don't think we will move very far into Unhealthy before the trend is reversed. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, October 24, 2013

We have a very boring forecast for Thursday, just clear skies all day long.  Enjoy!

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, October 23, 2013

As of Tuesday evening, we're waiting for our clean air to arrive.  The major clearing could happen anytime between now and 2 or 3AM, but we're expecting Good or Moderate air by about 7AM in any case.  Early forecasts make it look like Thursday will have good air as well, so be sure to find some time to get outside while you can!

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings: 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Tuesday will be our second day of poor air quality, but a clearing is on the way.  We should see increasing PM2.5 levels overnight and through the morning, with the pollution peaking around noon.  We should see stable or slightly decreasing PM2.5 through the afternoon, but the real clearing should come after sunset. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:
 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, October 21, 2013

We've reached the end of this run of good air, and it looks like poor air quality is coming back to Beijing on Monday.  We're expecting PM2.5 levels to increase steadily throughout the morning, bringing us up to Very Unhealthy by noon.  During the afternoon, we may see a slight decrease in pollution levels, but we should see those levels increasing again after sunset. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, October 20, 2013

Look for our good air quality to continue for part of the day on Sunday, at least through noon.  From there we should see PM2.5 levels begin to rise, and we will probably spend the evening with Unhealthy and deteriorating air quality. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, October 19, 2013

We're looking for very welcome clearing skies on Saturday in Beijing.  At or shortly after midnight, we should see the skies begin to clear, and we could see Good or Moderate air quality as early as 3 or 4AM.  But in any case, we should see that good air no later than about noon.  So far, it looks like the good air will continue through Sunday, so be sure to get outside and enjoy the good weather. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, October 18, 2013

Friday should continue the trend of poor air quality here in Beijing.  We expect increasing PM2.5 levels overnight and through the morning.  Then, around late morning or noon, the levels should stabilize and possibly start dropping a bit through the afternoon.  As we move toward midnight, we could see the skies begin to clear much more quickly - we're looking for clear skies by Saturday morning!

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:
 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, October 17, 2013

Thursday's forecast is not promising for the air quality here in Beijing.  We are expecting increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, which should move us into Very Unhealthy by the morning.  We may see some clearing in the afternoon relative to the late morning levels, but we are not expecting conditions to improve beyond Unhealthy.  Then by sunset, PM2.5 levels should be increasing again into Friday morning. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, October 16, 2013

There is a small chance for some good air on Wednesday, but it looks more likely that Wednesday will be the start of a couple days of poor air quality.  If there is any clearing, look for it in the early morning hours through about noon.  Then by the afternoon, we should see increasing PM2.5 levels through the evening, possibly taking us up into Very Unhealthy before midnight. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Our good air should continue for a while on Tuesday, with mostly Good or Moderate air quality through noon.  But in the afternoon, we should see increasing PM2.5 levels, and that should move us up into Unhealthy before the day is over. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, October 14, 2013

Monday should bring us some very good air, if only for a brief period of time.  We should see increasing PM2.5 levels just after midnight, peaking around 4AM.  Then we should see the air begin to clear, and we should see Good or Moderate air beginning sometime between 8A and 11A.  But the good air should be short-lived, and we can expect to see increasing PM2.5 again between about 4P and 6P.  The increasing pollution is likely to continue throughout the evening hours, bringing us back up into Unhealthy. 

UPDATE - Here's how the day played out:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, October 13, 2013

Sunday's air quality may look very similar to Saturday's.  We should start the day off at Unhealthy, but we should see some clearing before and after sunrise.  Depending on the strength of the clearing, we could drop as low as Good or Moderate, but there is also a chance that we never make it lower than Unhealthy.  In either case, around sunset or shortly after, we should see significant accumulation of PM2.5 through midnight. 

UPDATE - Here's how the day played out:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, October 12, 2013

 

Our forecast for Saturday has a fairly wide range, but we're faced with weather forecasts that present two different scenarios our air quality.  In the first scenario, we would see reasonably strong winds that will clear out the PM2.5 through the early morning and give us Good or Moderate air quality by late morning or noon.  From there, the weather would shift and we would see the pollution accumulate again.  Under the second scenario, the early morning conditions would reduce PM2.5 levels a bit but would not drop the levels out of Unhealthy.  From there the increases in PM2.5 would move us back up into Very Unhealthy before midnight.  If we have to choose the most likely outcome, it appears that the first scenario is slightly more likely, so there is a reasonable chance that we will see some decent air quality for a few hours tomorrow.   

UPDATE - Here's how the day played out: 

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, October 11, 2013

On Friday, we still have a bit longer with good air before things deteriorate again.  Things should generally stay in the Good or Moderate range through the morning, but by noon we should see levels start to move up.  With steady increases, we could end up at Unhealthy before the day is over. 


UPDATE - Here's how the day played out:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, October 10, 2013

Thursday will be bringing us a great opportunity for some clear air.  We may see some slight increases in PM2.5 after midnight, but we should see rapidly decreasing pollution somewhere around sunrise.  We're expecting to reach Good or Moderate air quality by about 8 or 9AM, but certainly no later than noon in any case.  The weather forecast is for fairly high winds, but it should be a good afternoon to get outside regardless. 

UPDATE:  Our forecast did a pretty job capturing the clearing.

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Tomorrow's air quality looks to be fairly average for Beijing.  We are expecting increasing PM2.5 levels overnight with a peak around 8 or 9AM, then we should see some clearing in the late morning and afternoon.  We should spend most of the day at Unhealthy but with a chance at moving into Very Unhealthy near the peak and Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups at the trough. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, October 8, 2013

On Tuesday, we're back to poor air quality.  We should see PM2.5 levels increasing fairly quickly overnight before they peak around 8 or 9AM.  Then we should see levels stabilize and drop somewhat during the early afternoon.  We could see some big swings in air quality during the day, possibly moving from a peak at Very Unhealthy down to a low at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, October 7, 2013

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, October 6, 2013

Sunday looks to be another day for very poor air quality.  The weather conditions are generally pretty stable, but it looks like the PM2.5 levels may decrease a bit over the morning and afternoon.  We could see our best air quality of the day in the late evening, but we will likely see Very Unhealthy and Hazardous conditions for the entire day.