PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, June 30, 2013

Sunday is shaping up to be another roller coaster for us in Beijing.  A fairly stable air mass should give us increasing PM2.5 levels in the morning hours, but we should see some air movement in the late morning and early afternoon to bring us some clearing.  We could see some big drops over very short periods of time if the pressure shift occurs as predicted. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, June 29, 2013

Well, Friday was a bit of a roller coaster with PM2.5 levels, so we're hoping Saturday is a little less exciting.  We're still sitting in a low pressure area with very little happening regionally, and that makes forecasts less reliable than we would like.  [Friday's drop from 438 AQI at 9P to 105 AQI at 11P with no significant reional air movement is good evidence of that.]  But, from the weather forecasts we have, our best prediction is that we will see increasing pollution levels overnight and through the morning.  With the very small regional shifts in air masses, those increases could reintroduce some particulate matter to Beijing, and we could move up into Very Unhealthy.  But assuming the weather forecasts are correct, we should see some clearing in the afternoon hours, potentially dropping as low as Moderate. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, June 28, 2013

After an unexpectedly good afternoon for air quality on Thursday, we've seen the PM2.5 levels bounce back up.  We should see those high levels continue through the morning before levels start to drop off again.  After lunch, we should drop down through Unhealthy and into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Moderate. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, June 27, 2013

Thursday's air quality is shaping up to be some of the worst we have seen in Beijing for a while.  We are still sitting in the middle of a low pressure system that shows no signs of leaving in the next couple of days, and that should give us very poor air quality in the short term.  We should spend most of Thursday at Very Unhealthy or Hazardous, although we do have a chance at dropping into Unhealthy in the afternoon and evening. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Wednesday poses a challenge for predicting the PM2.5 levels here in Beijing.  We're currently sitting in a low pressure system that shows no signs of leaving, but even with that system in place local weather effects can make produce significant variations in pollution levels.  The graph presented above reflects that uncertainty.  The most likely scenario for Wednesday is high PM2.5 levels, primarily at Very Unhealthy, throughout the day with some decrease in the late afternoon and evening hours.  The alternative scenario would see locally strong winds providing some clearing in the late morning and through the afternoon; this would drop PM2.5 levels through Unhealthy and likely down into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.  My money is on the first scenario, but we'll see what the weather brings us. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Tuesday's forecast should look familiar - this seems to be the normal trend for Beijing these days.  Once again, we can expect increasing PM2.5 levels in the morning and decreasing levels in the afternoon.  The weather forecast looks promising to keep those levels much lower than Monday's, so it's possible that we could spend most of the day at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or the lower portion of the Unhealthy range. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, June 24, 2013

The short forecast:  poor air quality Monday morning, improving air quality Monday afternoon.  We should spend the morning at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy before we get some clearing in the afternoon.  Then we should see Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups for a while and possibly Moderate in the afternoon and evening hours. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, June 23, 2013

Sunday morning should bring us worse than average air as we watch PM2.5 levels climb through Unhealthy and likely into Very Unhealthy.  But we should get some relief in the afternoon when those levels drop back into Unhealthy.  There is some chance of dropping into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in the late afternoon, but the most likely scenario will keep us in Unhealthy for the rest of the evening.

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, June 22, 2013

Saturday looks to be an up and down kind of day.  We should spend the morning rising into Unhealthy and Very Unhealthy levels, but we should see some clearing around late morning or noon.  That may dip us back down into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups before we tick up again in the late afternoon and evening hours. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, June 21, 2013

Friday gives us another shot at some good air after our surprisingly poor air quality Thursday evening.  Look for PM2.5 levels to fall overnight and through the morning hours, most likely dipping into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and Moderate.  We should see those levels pick up again in the late afternoon or evening, but Friday should generally be a better than average day for Beijing air quality. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, June 20, 2013

Thursday should start off with air quality in the Unhealthy range, but we should see the air beginning to clear in the early morning hours.  Look for levels to drop at least into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and likely into Moderate by the late morning.  We may see a brief uptick after noon, but otherwise we should spend the rest of the day at Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Wednesday morning gives us a chance at some decent air with pollution levels either at the low end of Unhealthy or down into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.  The current weather forecast says conditions should allow for increasing PM2.5 levels from there, so we should see levels rise back into Unhealthy and possibly into Very Unhealthy throughout the afternoon and evening. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, June 18, 2013

After Monday's good air, we're back to Beijing's normal for Tuesday.  We should spend the morning watching the PM2.5 levels rise, through Unhealthy and possibly to Very Unhealthy.  Then we should see some clearing in the early afternoon with a chance to move down into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups before levels move back up in the evening hours. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, June 17, 2013

If you looked at the graph above and thought it was strange-looking (and not entirely helpful), you are correct.  This graph shows such a wide range of possible pollution levels because we are looking at two possible scenarios for tomorrow.  The weather forecasts for tomorrow have elements that suggest the first scenario as well as elements that suggest an opposing scenario, so both possibilities are included here.  The first scenario would track the lower range of the graph, giving us a good chance at clear air in the morning on Monday.  Unfortunately, that scenario is less likely to occur than the second.  The second scenario tracks the high end of the graph, keeping PM2.5 levels hovering in the Very Unhealthy and high Unhealthy ranges.  The regional weather patterns suggest that this is the most likely scenario, but we will just hope for the weather forecasts to be wrong on this one.

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, June 16, 2013

Sunday gives us a good chance at seeing some good air quality, but only after a bit more of the higher levels of PM2.5 we have been experiencing.  We should spend the morning at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy, but PM2.5 levels should start to drop off in the afternoon.  It is most likely that we will drop through Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups down to Moderate and possibly even Good in the late afternoon and evening hours.  The good air should carry through for Monday morning as well. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, June 15, 2013

Saturday looks as if it will be a slightly worse than average day for PM2.5 pollution.  We can again expect Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy air throughout the morning with a good chance of some clearing in the afternoon and early evening.  We have a chance at seeing levels as low as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, but it is most likely that we will stay at Unhealthy for the entire afternoon. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, June 14, 2013

Friday brings us another typical summer day for PM2.5 pollution in Beijing.  We should spend the morning at Unhealthy or Very Unhealthy, then we should see PM2.5 levels drop in the late morning and early afternoon.  We could drop into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or even Moderate if the weather conditions are just right, but we could also see a repeat of Thursday when PM2.5 levels hovered in the Unhealthy range all day. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, June 13, 2013

Thursday should give us poor air quality in Beijing in the morning and a chance at fairly good air in the afternoon.  Look for PM2.5 levels to increase through Unhealthy after midnight and possibly into Very Unhealthy.  By mid-morning, you can expect those levels to start decreasing, and we could move down into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Moderate by mid- to late-afternoon. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Wednesday should be an average day for Beijing when it comes to PM2.5 levels.  After starting out at midnight with fairly low levels, the pollution should increase until it settles in at Unhealthy.  Once we reach Unhealthy, things should settle in there for the rest of the day. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Beijing's surge of clean air should come to a close on Tuesday as we see PM2.5 levels move back into unhealthy levels.  Look for levels to increase through Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and Unhealthy in the morning, but in the afternoon hours we should see some decreasing in those levels.  Look for PM2.5 to increase again after sunset. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, June 10, 2013

Monday will bring increasing PM2.5 levels back to Beijing.  We should spend the morning hours moving up through Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups      and Unhealthy     , then we have a chance of seeing Very Unhealthy      levels in the late afternoon and evening hours. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, June 9, 2013

Sunday gives us a brief chance at some clear air with a strong cold front predicted to come through the area. That weather change could push out the current pollution accumulations.  We should see PM2.5 levels at Very Unhealthy      after midnight, but those levels should be falling into Unhealthy      around sunrise.  If the clearing is going to happen, we should see levels falling through Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups      and Moderate      by late morning.  Pollution levels should stabilize some through the afternoon before moving up again in the evening. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Saturday, June 8, 2013

We should get a brief break from the rain on Saturday, but it does not look like the weather conditions will give us much of a break from the poor air quality.  The morning air should be Unhealthy      or Very Unhealthy     , but we have a chance at some clearing in the afternoon.  We could see the PM2.5 levels drop into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups     , although this is not the most likely scenario.  Look for increasing PM2.5 levels in the late evening as we prepare for another rainy and polluted day on Sunday. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Friday, June 7, 2013

Friday brings us another day of this strange weather that feels more like early spring than early summer.  The rain/drizzle, humidity, and stable air mass provide a good environment for PM2.5 levels to stay high.  We can expect to see PM2.5 levels that are mostly in the Very Unhealthy      range, although the afternoon conditions should give us a chance of dropping down into Unhealthy     .  Unfortunately, the extended forecast does not predict much of a departure from these odd weather conditions in the short term, so we should be looking at this kind of poor air quality for a few more days.

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Thursday, June 6, 2013

Thursday should be another day with above average PM2.5 pollution in Beijing.  We should spend the morning at Very Unhealthy      before we see PM2.5 levels drop off in the early afternoon.  The afternoon should see us move down into Unhealthy     .

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Wednesday brings us another day of poor air quality in Beijing.  Look for overnight PM2.5 levels to be in the Unhealthy      and Very Unhealthy      ranges before we see some decreasing pollution in the late morning hours.  We should fall back into Unhealthy and possibly into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups      by early evening, but we can expect levels to rise again after sunset. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Tuesday should repeat our now-familiar story of PM2.5 levels for the early Beijing summer:  high levels in the morning followed by better air in the afternoon.  Expect to see Unhealthy      and Very Unhealthy      air in the morning followed by decreasing levels in the late morning.  We should make it into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups     , and there is a decent chance of dropping into Moderate     .  Expect increasing PM2.5 levels in the evening hours.

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, June 3, 2013

After Sunday's unexpectedly high PM2.5 levels, Monday should be a better day for air quality.  We should start the day off at Unhealthy      or Very Unhealthy      before seeing PM2.5 levels begin to drop in the morning hours.  We can expect to fall at least into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups      and possibly into Moderate      by the afternoon.  But changing weather conditions should see those levels move right back up as we go through the evening commute. 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Sunday, June 2, 2013

Sunday's air quality in Beijing should look fairly similar to Saturday's but with lower levels on average (and particularly so at the highest points).  In the morning, we should increase through Unhealthy      before we start to see a decrease in the late morning or early afternoon.  We should make it down into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups     , and there is a good chance that the PM2.5 levels will drop all the way down into Moderate     .  As always, look for those levels to increase somewhat in the late evening, after sunset.