PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Tuesday's air quality looks like it will match the pattern of the past few days:  higher PM2.5 concentrations at night and lower concentrations during the day.  After seeing Unhealthy AQI readings overnight, look for PM2.5 levels to drop in the early morning hours, likely leaving us with Good/Moderate air quality by about 8AM.  After levels stay low throughout the day, we should see the pollution accumulating again after 4PM or 5PM.

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, January 1:  Clear for most of the day, but most likely we will see increasing PM2.5 in the afternoon that moves us up to at least Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.

THURSDAY, January 2:  The prevailing conditions of the past few weeks that have given us clear air will likely not be in effect today.  Look for air quality that is no better than Moderate in the morning, then gradually becoming worse throughout the day with higher pollution levels in the late afternoon and evening.

FRIDAY, January 3:  There is a good chance of clearing skies in the morning, then deteriorating air quality again in the evening.  This might be a day with some big changes in pollution levels throughout the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, December 30, 2013

After seeing disappointing air quality in Beijing on Sunday, it looks like Monday should be an improvement.  If the weather forecasts are correct, we should see PM2.5 levels dropping early in the morning, leaving us with Good/Moderate air around sunrise or earlier.  That good air quality should continue through about mid-afternoon when the pollution should begin to accumulate again.  Then, late in the evening, pollution levels should move downward again.

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, December 31:  After likely higher pollution levels overnight, we should again see Good/Moderate air quality for New Year’s Eve.  As is typical, there is some potential for increased PM2.5 levels in the evening.

WEDNESDAY, January 1:  Clear for most of the day, but most likely we will see increasing PM2.5 in the afternoon that moves us up into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Unhealthy.

THURSDAY, January 2:  The prevailing conditions of the past few weeks that have given us clear air will likely not be in effect today.  Look for air quality that is Moderate or worse through the day, with higher pollution levels in the late afternoon and evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, December 29, 2013

It's another great day for air quality in Beijing on Sunday.  We could see higher PM2.5 levels just after midnight or after sunset, but look for clear skies throughout the daylight hours.

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, December 30:  Once again a better than average day, likely with Good/Moderate air quality.  Possibly higher PM2.5 in the early evening, but it's likely we won't go higher than Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.

TUESDAY, December 31:  The streak of good air should continue with Good/Moderate air quality for New Year’s Eve.  Same potential for slightly increased PM2.5 levels in the early evening. 

WEDNESDAY, January 1:  Clear for most of the day, but most likely we will see increasing PM2.5 in the afternoon that moves us up into Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Unhealthy. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, December 28, 2013

Despite some higher PM2.5 levels on Friday evening, we should be back to good air quality on Saturday.  Look for Good/Moderate AQI levels by sunrise, and there should be no buildup of pollution until sunset or after.  We could see increasing PM2.5 in the evening that would move us up in the Unhealthy range.

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, December 29:  Most likely a day for good air.  We should see the day’s best air quality in the morning, with AQI levels at Good/Moderate.  Then the pollution levels should creep up in the afternoon, likely moving us up to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and possibly to Unhealthy.

MONDAY, December 30:  Once again a better than average day, likely with Good/Moderate air quality. 

TUESDAY, December 31:  The streak of good air should continue with Good/Moderate air quality for New Year's Eve.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, December 27, 2013

Friday looks like another great day for air quality in Beijing.  We should see AQI levels at Good/Moderate for most of the day, but we could see increasing PM2.5 for a short while in the late afternoon and evening.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, December 26, 2013

Thursday should be a great day for air quality in Beijing.  Look for AQI levels at Good/Moderate for the entire day with a small chance of increasing pollution after sunset.

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, December 27:  Not quite as good as Thursday, but there is still a good chance that we will see air quality at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or better for the entire day.

SATURDAY, December 28:  Saturday should be better than Friday, likely giving us Good/Moderate air quality.  In the evening, we can expect to see PM2.5 levels increasing somewhat.

SUNDAY, December 29:  Possibly a mixed day for air quality.  We should see the day's best air quality in the morning, with AQI levels at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or better.  Then we should see increasing pollution in the afternoon, likely moving us up to Unhealthy PM2.5 levels. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Once Santa and Rudolph have done their deliveries, and after everyone has had a chance to open their presents, the air quality in Beijing is going to drastically improve on Christmas day.  Overnight we may see some increasing PM2.5, and it is very likely that levels will stay at Hazardous.  But between mid-morning and early afternoon, we should see the pollution start to clear.  Look for Good/Moderate air quality no later than about 8PM.

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, December 26:  This should be a great day in Beijing.  It looks likely that we will see Good/Moderate air quality the entire day.

FRIDAY, December 27:  Not quite as good as Thursday, but there is still a good chance that we will see Good/Moderate air quality for the entire day.  There is also some chance of increasing PM2.5 after about 5PM.

SATURDAY, December 28:  Yet another day of good air quality.  Be sure to enjoy!

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, December 24, 2013

The Christmas Eve air quality forecast is looking bleak for Beijing.  We're looking for significantly increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, then possibly some reduction in pollution levels around noon, then increasing pollution again in the late afternoon and evening.  Levels will most likely be at AQI 200 (Very Unhealthy) or higher throughout the day, although we can't rule out a drop into Unhealthy in the afternoon.  This will definitely be a Christmas Eve where Rudolph earns his keep for those Beijing deliveries.

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, December 25:  Christmas morning should start out with very poor air quality, but we should see the skies clear before midnight.  The AQI should drop down to Good or Moderate at some point in the afternoon or evening, most likely at sunset or later.

THURSDAY, December 26:  This should be a great day in Beijing.  It looks likely that we will see Good/Moderate air quality the entire day.

FRIDAY, December 27:  Not quite as good as Thursday, but there is still a good chance that we will see Good/Moderate air quality for the entire day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, December 23, 2013

Monday's air quality looks like it will be a roller coaster.  If the weather behaves as predicted, we should see PM2.5 levels peak shortly after midnight, then drop quickly through about noon.  Then by early afternoon, the pollution should start accumulating again, quickly moving back into Unhealthy or higher AQI levels.

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, December 24:  Likely a day of poor air quality.  The AQI will almost certainly be above 150 and likely will be above 200 at some parts of the day.

WEDNESDAY, December 25:  Christmas morning should start out with very poor air quality, but we should see the skies clear before midnight.  The AQI should drop down to Good or Moderate at some point in the afternoon or evening.

THURSDAY, December 26:  This should be a great day in Beijing.  It looks likely that we will see Good/Moderate air quality the entire day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, December 22, 2013

Sunday looks like a pretty rough day for air quality in Beijing.  Although we might see a small dip in AQI around noon, the general trend for Sunday will be up.  Look for PM2.5 levels to give us an AQI of Very Unhealthy or Hazardous for nearly the entire day.

EXTENDED FORECAST

MONDAY, December 23:  Better air quality than on Sunday, likely with some reduction in pollution levels in the morning and early afternoon.  There is some chance that we will reach Good or Moderate AQI around noon, but pollution levels should increase again in the afternoon and evening.

TUESDAY, December 24:  Likely a day of poor air quality.  The AQI will almost certainly be above 150 and likely will be above 200 at some parts of the day.

WEDNESDAY, December 25:  Christmas morning should start out with very poor air quality, but we should see the skies clear before midnight.  The AQI should drop down to Good or Moderate at some point in the afternoon or evening.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, December 21, 2013

The better-than-average air quality from this week looks like it will hang around for just a bit longer, but not much longer.  After midnight we expect decreasing PM2.5 levels, and that should put us at Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups after sunrise and through about noon.  But from there we should see increasing PM2.5 levels, very likely raising the AQI into the Very Unhealthy range by the evening hours.

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, December 22:  Most likely a day with poor air quality.  The AQI will almost certainly be above 150 and possibly will be above 200 all day.

MONDAY, December 23:  Better air quality than on Sunday, likely with some reduction in pollution levels in the morning and early afternoon.  It is unlikely that we will see the AQI drop to Good or Moderate, but there should be some improvement for a brief while.

TUESDAY, December 24:  Likely another day of poor air quality.  The AQI will almost certainly be above 150 and likely will be above 200 at some parts of the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, December 20, 2013

Despite the poor air quality over Thursday night, Friday should be a good day for air quality in Beijing.  PM2.5 levels should drop down into the Good/Moderate range shortly after sunrise, then they should remain there through the afternoon.  After sunset, we may see PM2.5 increase somewhat, but we are not expecting it to be terribly significant.

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, December 21:  Generally deteriorating conditions, with the lowest pollution levels in the early morning.  The AQI will likely be Unhealthy or lower in the morning, then increasing to Unhealthy or greater in the afternoon and evening.

SUNDAY, December 22:  Most likely a day with poor air quality.  The AQI will almost certainly be above 150 and likely will be above 200 all day.

MONDAY, December 23:  Better air quality than on Sunday, with some reduction in pollution levels in the morning and early afternoon.  We do not expect to see the AQI drop to Good, but there should be some improvement for a brief while.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, December 19, 2013

Thursday promises to be entertaining on the air quality front.  The weather forecasts for Thursday give us quite a wide window of possibilities as you can see from the graph.  The general trend should be increasing PM2.5 overnight, decreasing after sunrise, then increasing again in the afternoon and evening.  We expect to see some large changes in pollution levels throughout the day, so keep an eye on the current conditions as you go about your day.

EXTENDED FORECAST

FRIDAY, December 20:  Better air quality than on Thursday, probably with Moderate pollution levels in the late morning and afternoon.

SATURDAY, December 21:  Generally deteriorating conditions, with the lowest pollution levels in the early morning.  The AQI will likely be Unhealthy or lower in the morning, then increasing to Very Unhealthy or greater in the afternoon and evening.

SUNDAY, December 22:  Most likely a day with poor air quality.  The AQI will almost certainly be above 150 and probably will be above 200 all day.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, December 18, 2013

After a great day on Tuesday, it looks as if we will move back toward poor air quality on Wednesday.  PM2.5 levels should remain mostly stable overnight and through the morning, leaving us at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or lower.  But after noon, PM2.5 levels should begin to increase, and these increases could be significant later in the evening.  We could see the AQI reach as high as Very Unhealthy before midnight.

EXTENDED FORECAST

THURSDAY, December 19:  Air quality should be fairly stable, although it is likely that we will see a general increasing trend.  The AQI will most likely stay between about 125 and 250.

FRIDAY, December 20:  Better air quality than on Thursday, possibly with Moderate pollution levels in the late morning and afternoon.

SATURDAY, December 21:  Generally deteriorating conditions, likely at Unhealthy or lower in the morning, then increasing to Very Unhealthy or greater in the afternoon and evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, December 17, 2013

On Tuesday, we should be getting a break from the high AQI levels of Monday afternoon and evening.  We could see dropping PM2.5 levels as early as midnight or as late as about 7 or 8AM, but we should have Good/Moderate air quality by late morning.  And from there, PM2.5 levels should remain low for the rest of the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY, December 18:  Fairly stable conditions, with likely better than average AQI for Beijing during this time of the year.  We could see Good/Moderate air quality, or PM2.5 levels could be in the low portion of the Unhealthy range.

THURSDAY, December 19:  Nearly the same conditions as for Wednesday: fairly stable air quality, likely somewhere between about 50 and 175 AQI.

FRIDAY, December 20:  Nearly the same conditions as for Wednesday and Thursday, but with a good chance of deteriorating air quality in the evening. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, December 16, 2013

Monday looks like it will be about average for air quality in Beijing.  We should see gradually increasing PM2.5 levels overnight, keeping us at Unhealthy levels.  Then around sunrise, we should see the pollution clearing slightly, possibly dropping us to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Moderate by early afternoon.  From there, we expect to see PM2.5 levels increasing again, bringing us back to Unhealthy and possibly to Very Unhealthy air quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST

TUESDAY, December 17:  Clearing skies overnight or in the morning, then we should see Good/Moderate air quality for the entire day.

WEDNESDAY, December 18:  Fairly stable conditions, possibly Good/Moderate or PM2.5 levels could be in the low portion of the Unhealthy range.

THURSDAY, December 19:  Nearly the same conditions as for Wednesday, but there is a good chance of deteriorating air quality in the evening.


UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, December 15, 2013

Sunday has a wide range of possible air quality conditions, so it makes it hard to pin down the exact range for our predictions.  But it looks most likely that air quality will stay at  Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or Unhealthy for the entire day with some degree of stability. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, December 14, 2013

Saturday will bring us another day of better than average air quality in Beijing.  We may see elevated PM2.5 levels overnight, but by early morning we should see the air clearing.  Once we make it down to Good/Moderate levels, we should remain there for the rest of the day.

EXTENDED FORECAST

SUNDAY, December 15:  Gradually deteriorating conditions throughout the day – probably at Unhealthy PM2.5 levels, with the highest levels likely in the afternoon.

MONDAY, December 16:  Possible slight clearing overnight, then slightly deteriorating air quality through the day, most likely at Unhealthy or higher PM2.5 levels.

TUESDAY, December 17:  Fairly stable air quality, likely at Unhealthy for most of the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Friday, December 13, 2013

Friday promises to be another good day for air quality in Beijing.  By sunrise, we should be back down to Good or Moderate conditions, and the PM2.5 levels should remain low for the morning and into the early afternoon.  By mid-afternoon, we should see the pollution start to accumulate, and the PM2.5 levels should go up for the rest of the day. 

EXTENDED FORECAST

SATURDAY, December 14:  Possibly Unhealthy PM2.5 levels just after midnight, but clearing skies and Good/Moderate air for the rest of the day.

SUNDAY, December 15:  Gradually deteriorating conditions throughout the day - expect to see Unhealthy or higher PM2.5 levels.

MONDAY, December 16:  Mostly stable or slightly deteriorating air quality, most likely at Unhealthy or higher PM2.5 levels.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Thursday, December 12, 2013

After possibly a couple of hours of Unhealthy air, Thursday should be a great day for air quality in Beijing.  We expect PM2.5 levels to drop into the Good/Moderate range no later than about 8AM and to stay that low for the rest of the day. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Wednesday's air quality forecast is a little strange because the weather forecasts we have are very inconsistent.  You can expect to see Good or Moderate air through the early morning hours, but we could see PM2.5 start to accumulate some around sunrise.  If that occurs, we should see the air quality deteriorate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and possibly to Unhealthy during the afternoon.  But a different weather forecast predicts conditions that would keep us at Good or Moderate air quality through the morning and into the early afternoon, when we would see a small increase in pollution.  We think it is most likely that Wednesday's air quality will not be as good as Tuesday's, but it should still be better than average for Beijing. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:
 

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Tuesday, December 10, 2013

We had a beautiful day on Monday, but it looks like Tuesday will not be quite as nice for our air quality in Beijing.  Overnight, we should see increasing PM2.5 levels, and pollution levels should peak between about 8AM and 10AM.  From there we should see decreasing pollution levels, bringing us back down to Good or Moderate air quality sometime in the afternoon. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Monday, December 9, 2013

Monday is looking good for air quality in Beijing.  You can expect PM2.5 levels to stay in the Good or Moderate range for most of the day, but we could see the pollution begin to accumulate in the late afternoon and evening, possibly moving us to Unhealthy levels. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Sunday, December 8, 2013

Saturday brought us some terrible air quality in Beijing, and we expect that to continue for a while on Sunday before we see clearing skies.  The poor conditions should continue for a few hours after midnight, with a strong chance that we will see PM2.5 levels move up to Beyond Index.  Our weather forecasts are mixed on when the air should start to clear, but we could see air quality at Good/Moderate as early as 9AM or as late as 9PM.  But once the air clears, we expect the air quality to remain good overnight and into Monday. 

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing – Saturday, December 7, 2013

We're in for another day of poor air quality on Saturday in Beijing.  We're expecting some ups and downs, but you can generally expect to see conditions at Very Unhealthy or Hazardous for most of the day.  But don't despair:  it looks like we can expect clearing skies at some point on Sunday.

UPDATE – Our prediction with overlay of actual readings: